543
FXUS64 KMAF 031757
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1257 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1249 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

- Heavy rainfall with flash flooding in low-lying, sloped terrain, and
  poor drainage regions today through the end of the week in slow
  moving and/or training showers/storms, before drier weather
  returns this weekend.

- Strong to severe storms this afternoon into tonight over parts
  of W TX and SE NM plains may also produce large hail and
  damaging winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday night)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

VIS/IR satellite early this afternoon shows another mesoscale
convective system over the area, producing moderate to heavy rain
from northern Presidio County into Culberson County and farther
east into the Marfa Plateau and Upper Trans Pecos. Van Horn and
the Highway 54 Corridor have picked up 0.5" to 1.5", with 0.50" to
0.75" over parts of the Marfa Plateau. The cloud and
precipitation shield accompanying this system has begun to decay
late this morning but may restrengthen. The main risk with storms
given weak southwesterly steering flow aloft and cloud tops
remaining above -50C to -60C remains heavy rain. However, SPC has
outlooked the region southwest of the Guadalupes and Marfa Plateau
in a MRGL risk, with locally damaging winds and large hail in
additional convective cores that develop (40% to 55% chance) being
the main severe risks, aided by 7-8 C/km low to mid-level lapse
rates. A 35% to 55% chance of showers/storms will continue to
spread north/northeast from the western higher terrain into SE NM
plains this evening, with breaks in clouds and daytime heating
leading to possible restrengthening of storms. Due to the
potential for additional flash flooding on top of what has all
ready fallen, another Flood Watch has been issued for this
afternoon through tonight. Otherwise, light south/southeast winds
and mostly cloudy skies keeps highs in the 80s F, 70s F higher
elevations. Additional rainfall amounts of at least a few tenths
of an inch are likely through tonight, with lows once again
falling into the 60s F, 50s F. Tomorrow, similar high
temperatures as another 35% to 55% chance of showers/storms are
forecast, but with high-res CAMs and ensembles indicating
heaviest storms over the Rio Grande basin into southeast Permian
Basin rather than Marfa Plateau into SE NM plains. Rainfall
amounts of 0.25" to 0.50" and higher tomorrow will again pose
another risk of flash flooding in regions of heavier and/or
training storms, while PWATs remain at and above 1.00", allowing
for any storms to be efficient rain producers. Tomorrow night, 25%
to 35% rain chances linger over Terrell County into the southeast
Permian Basin as lows again fall to similar levels as tonight.
There will be a day or two more of showers/storms before drier
weather finally returns. Read the Long Term Discussion for more
details.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

A mid to upper disturbance over Baja CA providing lift and deep
moisture convergence persists within weakly quasi-zonal flow
through this weekend. PWATs also remain at least 2 standard
deviations above normal from 1.00" to 1.25" through the end of the
week into the beginning of the weekend, maintaining low to medium
(35% to 55%) shower/storm chances over the area, especially the
southern and eastern parts of west Texas into Marfa Plateau and
Lea County Lea County. CAPE will not be overly high (1000-500
J/kg) while winds through the lower to mid troposphere will remain
weak (<25 knots), preventing higher instability and
rotation/persistence of stronger updrafts, respectively, keeping
the severe risk at a minimum. Main impact of showers/storms will
remain heavy rain with potential for flash flooding in low-lying,
sloped, and poor drainage regions as well as lightning. Rainfall
amounts of a few tenths of an inch to up to 0.5" or more in
heavier and/or training storms is expected, although amounts are
not likely to be as high as earlier this week. Until clouds and
rain chances depart, highs will remain in the 80s F, 70s F higher
elevations for much of the area, with lows remaining in the 50s
and 60s F.

After the disturbance aloft weakens and mid to upper ridging
takes over again, humid air characterized by dewpoint temperatures
in the 50s and 60s F will remain over central and eastern parts
of the area, while the western higher terrain into westernmost
Eddy County experiences slightly less humid conditions with dew
point temperatures decreasing back into the 40s F from this week`s
50s and 60s F. Therefore, despite ridging and large scale
subsidence decreasing rain chances back to near zero, highs near
average in the lower to mid 90s F and lows above average in the
mid 60s to mid 70s F are forecast in the more humid air, while
within drier air farther west, highs rise back into the mid to
upper 90s F and approach the century mark even as lows still fall
into the 60s F.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

VFR conditions behind this morning`s showers/storms at terminals
over Lea County into Permian Basin, with MVFR or lower conditions
in another round of showers/storms moving northeast for terminals
on the Stockton Plateau into Upper Trans Pecos this afternoon into
SE NM plains and parts of the Permian Basin this evening. There
is another 35% to 55% chance of showers/storms developing over
parts of the SE NM plains into northwest Permian Basin from 00Z
this evening through 05Z-08Z early tomorrow morning. Main impacts
of storms at terminals today and tonight will be heavy rainfall
with ponding of water and lightning. Winds south/southeast and
below 15 knots, apart from variable and gusting above 15 knots
near outflow from showers/storms, as well as south/southeast and
gusting to 20 knots for terminals over the Stockton Plateau 20Z
through 05Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               66  85  66  84 /  40  30  50  40
Carlsbad                 63  86  65  89 /  50  40  20  10
Dryden                   69  88  68  86 /  30  20  60  60
Fort Stockton            65  87  66  87 /  30  60  50  60
Guadalupe Pass           61  79  64  80 /  60  40  30  30
Hobbs                    61  83  62  84 /  40  30  30  20
Marfa                    55  83  55  80 /  30  70  70  70
Midland Intl Airport     65  84  66  83 /  30  40  50  30
Odessa                   65  84  66  83 /  30  40  50  30
Wink                     65  85  66  86 /  30  40  40  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch through late tonight for Central Brewster-Chinati
     Mountains-Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains
     Foothills-Eastern Culberson-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000
     Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Loving-Lower Brewster
     County-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves County
     Plains-Terrell-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-
     Winkler.

NM...Flood Watch through this evening for Central Lea-Eddy County
     Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Northern Lea-
     Southern Lea.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...94