758
FXUS64 KMAF 151830
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
130 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 130 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

- Isolated to scattered storms develop each afternoon over western
  portions of the region this afternoon/evening and tomorrow. Some
  storms may produce strong winds, frequent lightning, and heavy
  rainfall leading to localized flash flooding.

- Temperatures remain above normal through the weekend and into
  next week. Some locations will be near or above 100 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Persistence rules.  WV imagery this afternoon shows the upper ridge
centered over the southeastern CONUS, deflecting warmer conditions
away from West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, and as reflected by
the myriad heat advisories/warnings in effect over there.  As
there`s been little change over the past 24 hours, highs this
afternoon should be similar to yesterday`s, if not a degree cooler,
as thicknesses have decreased.  Upslope flow will work in tandem
w/instability and abundant moisture out west to produce afternoon
convection, mainly along and west of the Pecos.  An inverted trough
will move west into the Big Bend Area, with little effect except to
continue bringing down thicknesses/temperatures.

Tonight, unfortunately, unseasonably warm minimums continue, mainly
due to a LLJ of around 35 kts, and a few mid/high clouds.  Lows
should average ~ 5-7 F above normal, a degree or two cooler than
this morning due to less cloud cover.   Convection should diminish
during the evening after peak heating concludes.

Sunday looks to be the coolest day this forecast, w/the inverted
trough still in the Big Bend Area.  High should average only around
5 F above normal.  Upslope flow will once again result in an
afternoon of convection, mainly along and west of the Pecos, only
maybe a bit farther west than this afternoon.

Sunday night looks like a repeat of tonight, only dry.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Above normal temperatures continue next week as the upper-level
ridge remains dominant over the region. Afternoon highs in the mid
90s to low 100s can be expected each day this work week, with the
hottest spots ranging from 105 to near 110 along the Rio Grande.
Upslope flow and diurnal heating yields a low (~10%) chance of
showers and storms over the Davis Mountains on Monday, though the
rest of the forecast area remains dry. Sinking motion under the
ridge keeps the remainder of the week dry areawide.

Greening

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 530 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Southeasterly winds at terminals from the beginning of the period
through late evening, becoming more southerly for terminals on
the Permian Basin into Lea County thereafter. A low (15% to 30%)
chance of showers/storms is forecast for this afternoon, mainly
for terminals on the Upper Trans Pecos and the SE NM plains. Main
risks with any storms are brief heavy rainfall, lightning, hail,
and strong, variable winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               74 100  73 100 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 73  98  72  99 /  20  10   0   0
Dryden                   75  98  75  99 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            73  96  72  97 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           68  90  67  90 /  20  20   0  10
Hobbs                    71  97  69  97 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                    62  88  61  90 /  20  20  10  10
Midland Intl Airport     74  97  73  98 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   74  97  73  98 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     75  98  74  99 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...94