112
FXUS64 KMAF 290845
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
345 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 345 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

- A Heat Advisory is in effect from 1 PM MDT /2 PM CDT/ to 8 PM
  MDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for the Guadalupe, Davis, Chinati,
  and Delaware Mountains, as well as Chisos Basin.

- Hazardous heat continues through Friday, after which a cold
  front Saturday will bring slightly cooler temperatures over the
  weekend, before a warm-up next week.

- The weak cold front this weekend will result in a chance of
  rain, mainly over Southeast New Mexico.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

WV imagery this morning shows the upper ridge parked over
northeastern New Mexico, a little farther west than 24 hours ago.
Although it hasn`t moved much from yesterday, models weaken it
today, decreasing thicknesses and shaving a couple of degrees off of
yesterday`s highs.  That said, many locations should still hit
triple digits, and highs in the mountains warrant a Heat Advisory
this afternoon/early evening.

Tonight, unseasonably warm overnight minimums continue, mainly due
to a recurring LLJ every night, occasionally assisted by mid/high
clouds to retard radiational cooling.  Overnight lows will come in ~
5-7 F above climatology.  Unfortunately, there`s no end in sight to
these warmer temperatures.

Thursday, the ridge develops down to southern New Mexico and begins
strengthening, adding maybe a degree or so in places to today`s
highs.

Unfortunately, short term grids remain dry.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Friday, the LREF and global models meander the ridge to eastern
Arizona.  However, it`s also forecast to strengthen, increasing
local thicknesses to yield the warmest day this forecast as highs
plateau ~ 7-9 F above normal, bringing most locations back into the
triple digits, if they aren`t already there.  Additional Heat
Advisories will likely be needed.

Friday night, a rare treat for this time of year is in store for
West Texas and Southeast New Mexico as am upper trough digging
through the MS Valley sends a cold front towards the area, resulting
in a chance of convection mainly in Southeast New Mexico.

The cold front itself arrives either Saturday morning or early
afternoon, depending on the model of choice, continuing chances of
convection Saturday afternoon and evening, mainly over Southeast New
Mexico.  For those who prefer cooler weather, highs Saturday
afternoon should average ~ 2-3 F cooler than Friday, keeping most
locations in the double digits.  The front will continue pushing
through the CWA Saturday night and Sunday, keeping highs Sunday
within a degree or so of Saturday.

Unfortunately, this "cooling" will be ephemeral, as highs most
locations bounce back into the triple digits most locations Monday
and Tuesday, likely warranting more Heat Advisories.  Not
surprising, as this is climatologically the warmest time of the year
for these parts.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, with a high cloud or
two. Convective temperatures are too high for a cu field except
for KFST, over which a few could form late morning. Generally
light flow is expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring              101  75 101  76 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                102  74 102  75 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                  100  75 101  76 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            99  73  99  75 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           94  69  94  71 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                   100  71 100  72 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    96  65  96  66 /  10   0  10   0
Midland Intl Airport     99  74  99  75 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   99  74  99  75 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                    100  74 101  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 2 PM CDT /1 PM MDT/ this afternoon to 9 PM
     CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for Chinati Mountains-Chisos
     Basin-Davis Mountains-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
     Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

NM...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM MDT this evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...99