228
FXUS64 KMAF 121811
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
111 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 106 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

- Heavy rain with a risk of flash flooding expected for parts of Marfa
  Plateau into SE NM plains through Tuesday, before rain chances
  decrease. Still a medium to high probability of at least 0.50"
  to 0.75" over parts of Davis Mountains into Guadalupes and
  westernmost Eddy County.

- Unseasonably warm temperatures midweek with southeast winds and
  elevated dew point temperatures, with Thursday expected to be
  the warmest day of the week.

- Westerly winds and cooler and drier weather late week into early
  weekend. Highs and lows trend down from late week into end of
  weekend as reinforcing cold fronts clear the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 106 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

WV imagery this afternoon shows the upper trough ejecting into
Manitoba, followed by a secondary trough digging through the
PacNW. This has suppressed the ridge even farther south, where it
now centers over Zacatecas deep in Mexico. This puts West Texas
and Southeast New Mexico under southwest flow aloft, which is
entraining tropical moisture from remnants of Priscilla and
Raymond into the area. KMAF 12Z RAOB came in w/a PWAT of 1.36",
which is above the 95th percentile, and current satellite products
suggest area PWATs are about 230% of normal. The latest NAM
forecasts PWATs at KMAF to increase to nearly 1.7" by 00Z this
evening. The daily record is 1.65".

Unfortunately, despite this abundance of moisture, models are not
real enthusiastic in tapping into it, as QPF remains meager. This
looks to be a high POP, low QPF event, as made manifest by
current radar loops. Of course, we`ll take what we can get out
here, and stronger convection could relinquish locally higher
rainfall. Best overall chances look to be around midnight or
shortly thereafter, along and west of a weak dryline running SW-NE
through the CWA just west of KMAF. Overnight, cloud cover and a
30 kt LLJ will keep temperatures similar to this morning`s, only
maybe a degree or so cooler due to evaporative cooling.

Monday, a cold front approaches the area, but stalls just north
of the CWA. Even so, cloudy skies and scattered convection will
keep highs down to only around 5 F above normal.

Monday night, convection tapers off to the northwest, as does
cloud cover. Overnight lows will cool by another couple of
degrees, but still remain well above climatology.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 106 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Lee troughing will be in process of weakening and retreating west
Tuesday as remnants of Priscilla move north over CO. Rain totals
in models continue to indicate at least a few tenths of an inch
from Marfa Plateau into SE NM plains, with medium to high
probability of rainfall at least 0.50" to 0.75" over Davis
Mountains into western Eddy County. Flash flood risk from heavy
rains will therefore continue to be a risk for these regions until
rain tapers off. Southeast near surface winds and southwest flow
aloft both advecting moisture into the area persists as remnants
of Priscilla move away. This keeps dew point temperatures elevated
above the mid 50s F. Therefore, while clearing from southeast to
northwest and subsidence occurs in wake of the remnants of
Priscilla, humid conditions are expected to continue with
southeast winds, breezy at times during the afternoon/evening and
into the overnight. As large scale sinking motion and accompanying
warming associated with a redeveloping southern CONUS ridge makes
its influence felt, highs rise back into the mid to upper 80s F,
mid 70s to lower 80s F lower elevations, and 90s F along Rio
Grande during the daytime Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. Lows
remain in the lower to mid 60s F, mid to upper 50s F higher
elevations and northern Lea County into northwest Permian Basin
since high temperatures are not likely into the 90s F except over
Rio Grande basins and parts of Upper Trans Pecos, allowing
temperatures to cool more overnight despite elevated boundary
layer moisture/dew point temperatures. Thursday remains the
warmest day this week as highs rise into the 90s F not just for
Rio Grande basins into Terrell County, but Upper Trans Pecos and
northeast Permian Basin. However, a change is in store.

As an upper storm system over the Great Basin strengthens and
develops northeast into the northern Rockies and Great Plains,
zonal flow aloft will increase, with winds even near the surface
becoming westerly by Thursday. This increased zonal flow will
strengthen lee troughing as well as a cold front stalled over the
TX Panhandle into CO Rockies, and result in increased CAA from the
north and west and boundaries developing southeast with northeast
progression of the upper storm system into the weekend,
respectively. Lows fall into the 50s F Thursday night for much of
Marfa Plateau, SE NM plains, and northwest Permian Basin with
lower 60s F, mid 60s F along Rio Grande, however dew point
temperatures will fall into the mid 40s to mid 50s F range, ending
the more humid conditions from earlier this week. Friday into the
early weekend, highs struggle to reach 80 F over higher
elevations into westernmost and northernmost SE NM plains, while
highs remain in the upper 80s to lower 90s F Rio Grande basins
into Terrell County and parts of northeast Permian Basin. Lows
while still above freezing everywhere, are still on track to be
the coldest so far this autumn. Mid 40s F lows make an appearance
over higher elevations into northern SE NM plains and northwest
Permian Basin, with lows in the 50s F to the north of Rio Grande
basins and northeast of Terrell County. Highs and lows trend down
through the weekend with the reinforcing boundaries. By late
weekend, highs lower to mid 80s F, mid to upper 70s F higher
elevations into SE NM plains and northwest Permian Basin, and
upper 80s to lower 90s F along Rio Grande into Terrell County are
currently forecast, while lows fall below 60 F north of Rio Grande
basins and into the lower 60s F for the Rio Grande basins.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1043 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

VFR conditions should prevail next 24 hours. -SHRA is anticipated
overnight all terminals, except perhaps KFST, but cigs look to
remain above critical thresholds. Winds will generally remain
light return flow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               67  87  63  86 /  20  20   0   0
Carlsbad                 64  80  62  83 /  60  30  30  10
Dryden                   66  89  65  86 /  10  10   0   0
Fort Stockton            65  88  65  85 /  20  20   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           59  72  58  75 /  70  30  40  10
Hobbs                    62  80  60  82 /  60  40  20  10
Marfa                    58  82  55  82 /  40  20  10   0
Midland Intl Airport     67  85  64  85 /  30  30   0   0
Odessa                   67  85  64  85 /  30  30   0   0
Wink                     66  85  64  85 /  50  30  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...99