421
FXUS64 KMAF 151832
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
132 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 126 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

- A 25% to 35% chance of isolated showers/storms is forecast after 12
  pm through sunset for western higher terrain into SE NM plains.

- Lower chance of isolated showers/storms with continued warm
  temperatures (90s and 100s) tomorrow.

- Cooler weather (highs in the 80s and 90s, lows in the 50s and 60s)
  and increased rain chances are expected by early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 126 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Isolated showers/storms and summer-like weather is forecast early
to mid week, despite a gradual cooling trend. Along the western
edge of a mid to upper ridge centered over the southeast US, mid
to upper disturbances providing lift and moisture convergence will
pivot over the western part of the forecast area. This in turn
with daytime heating, following diminishing storm activity from
this morning, will allow additional showers/storms to develop
after 12 pm. Low to medium (25% to 35%) PoPs from the Big Bend
through Marfa Plateau and western Eddy County are present this
afternoon, with locally higher PoPs (35% to 45%) over higher
elevations. High-res CAMs show isolated storm coverage, and model
soundings indicate only a minor flash flooding and wind threat.
Widespread severe weather is not expected. Highs remain above
average for mid September, rising into the 90F-100F range.PoPs
increase into the 35% to 45% range later in the afternoon through
early evening for the SE NM plains before declining after 10 pm.
Lows fall into the 60s and 70s F amid persistent south/southeast
winds, 15 to 25 mph from afternoon through early tonight over the
eastern Permian Basin and Stockton Plateau. Winds decrease below
15 mph by late tonight/early morning.

Tomorrow, similar story but slightly cooler with overall drier
weather as increased troughing over the western CONUS flattens the
ridge. Highs 85F-95F, 90F-100F for warmer spots along Pecos
River, northeast Permian Basin, and Rio Grande) with PoPs 25% to
35% for westernmost parts of the forecast area (near zero
elsewhere) are anticipated. This will occur as increased capping
aloft and drier, subsiding air mixing down into the lower
troposphere in association with westward expansion of the
flattened ridge suppresses daytime storms. Despite the lower storm
chances, easterly, humid upslope winds are forecast to remain 15
to 25 mph over a large portion of the area afternoon and evening,
although diminishing overnight. Lows tomorrow night fall to
similar levels as tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 126 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

The gradual cooling trend continues into the end of the week,
with persistent low (less than 25%) rain chances. However, highs
still warm into the 85F-95F range, 100F-105F along the Rio Grande
Thursday and Friday, as a relative lull in higher shower/storm
chances continues. This will be largely due to continued mid-level
capping and drier air mixing down the surface, despite prolonged
humid, upslope southeast flow. As a result, 15 to 25 mph winds
each afternoon through late evening can continue to be expected,
while lows stay in the 60s and 70s F. It is not out of the
question that an isolated storm or two may produce brief heavy
rainfall, strong winds, and frequent lightning, but the chance
will be less than earlier this week.

This changes by next week. Spread in temperatures is still low
through Saturday, with most recent forecast runs having highs
still into the 85F-95F range on Sunday. However, beginning
Saturday, forecast runs still show PoPs increasing to the 35% to
45% range over the western higher terrain into SE NM plains and
Permian Basin ahead of a cold front developing in from the north.
Accompanying the frontal passage by Sunday, higher PoPs expand
east/southeast over the rest of the forecast area. Persistent
south/southeast winds that have delivered summer-like temperatures
for the month so far are finally interrupted by a shift to more
east/northeast winds behind the cold front. This will allow highs
to drop into the 85F-95F range by early next week. Lows by early
next week are also expected to fall into the 50s and 60s F as
cooler daytime temperatures below 90F allow nighttime temperatures
to cool below 70F. At this time, there is no indication of
widespread severe weather accompanying the increased rain chances.
However, due to ensembles showing both mean rain totals through
early next week up to 1.00" over the western higher terrain and SE
NM plains along with gradually increasing shear that can better
organize storms, we will continue to monitor trends in both flash
flooding and severe storm risk for this weekend through next week.
This will become even more important to watch as summer weather
fades and risk of more widespread severe weather becomes
increasingly possible following transition into the more active
autumn secondary severe weather season.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Return flow is
generally on the increase due to leeside troughing on the Front
Range in response to the west coast upper trough. Forecast
soundings develop widespread cu field this afternoon, w/bases ~
6-8 kft AGL. Convection is possible, mainly invof KCNM and KHOB,
but chances are too low for a mention elsewhere.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               73  99  73  98 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 71  95  71  95 /  40  20  10  10
Dryden                   75  97  74  97 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            72  95  71  95 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           67  85  65  84 /  40  30  20  10
Hobbs                    69  94  69  93 /  50   0   0   0
Marfa                    62  89  61  88 /  20  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     73  97  73  95 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   74  96  73  95 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     73  97  73  96 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...99