854
FXUS64 KMAF 011845
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
145 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 139 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

- Isolated to widely scattered storms develop today, mainly in
  and around the higher terrain west of the Pecos River.

- Highs today reach the 90s, which could cause heat stress for
  those doing outdoor activities.

- Cooler and wetter weather returns Tuesday and remains through
  the end of next week. We will be monitoring for heavy rainfall
  and flash flooding of urban and low-lying areas during this
  time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday night)
Issued at 139 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

WV imagery this afternoon shows the upper ridge spanning the
southern CONUS, and approaching the MS Valley.  As a result,
thicknesses this afternoon will be a little lower than yesterday,
shaving 2-3 F off of yesterday`s highs.  Upslope flow will interact
with impulses in southwest flow aloft for a few thunderstorms,
mainly in the mountains.

This activity should diminish fairly quickly w/loss of diurnal
heating.  Plenty of cloud cover and a 30 kt LLJ to keep the boundary
layer mixed will keep overnight minimums 5-7 F above climatology.

Tuesday, return flow continues advecting rich Gulf moisture into the
area.  Surface winds back to a more easterly orientation, and this
upslope flow will meet up with a shortwave moving up from Sonora for
what will hopefully be a long-fused rain event for West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico.  By late afternoon, convection should be
likely from the Sacramento Foothills to the Davis Mountains.
Needless to say, thicknesses will continue to decline, combining
w/cloud cover/convection to shave ~ 2-4 F or more off today`s highs.

Tuesday night, the focus shifts from Southeast New Mexico to the
Permian Basin, w/GFS forecast soundings saturating top-down as the
LLJ continues advecting abundant Gulf moisture into the region.  By
late Tuesday night, forecast PWATs at KMAF are forecast to top out
at a little over 1.5" which, if accurate, will set a new daily
record.  The 100th percentile is 1.47".  Despite the increased
moisture, overnight lows will be similar or even cooler than
tonight`s, especially northwest.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 139 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

An upper-level trough continues its slow approach towards west
Texas and southeast New Mexico on Wednesday. By this time, the
trough begins diving south into Baja California, and eventually
begins to move across northern portions of Mexico. Increased lift
ahead of the trough coupled with ample moisture across the region
brings medium to high rain chances (50-80%) across the area
Wednesday (particularly in the morning) and again on Thursday.
While some timing/positioning differences do exist between models,
it appears the trough begins to move across our area Friday and
ejects northeastward over the weekend. As a result, medium
(40-60%) PoPs stick around Friday, and by Saturday and Sunday PoPs
become much lower (10-30%, mainly for far eastern counties and in
the higher terrain) as the best lift is displaced from our area.
Flash flooding continues to be our main concern through this week
given the very rich moisture across our area. Models still
indicate precipitable water values will be well over the 90th
percentile through Friday. The severe threat continues to look
relatively marginal, although a couple strong to severe storms
cannot be ruled out. Temperatures will be below normal by early
June standards through the week, with highs only topping out in
the upper 70s and low-to-mid 80s for most locations. By the
weekend temperatures begin to tick back up closer to/just above
normal (highs in the 90s) as rain chances largely diminish and
skies clear.

Sprang

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1047 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

VFR conditions should prevail next 24 hours in light return flow.
Forecast soundings develop a widespread cu field this afternoon,
w/bases 5-9 kft AGL. Another widespread cu field is anticipated
near the end of the forecast period, w/bases ~ 4.5 kft AGL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               69  92  66  85 /   0  10  70  80
Carlsbad                 68  93  63  86 /  10  50  60  60
Dryden                   71  94  71  90 /  10   0  30  50
Fort Stockton            67  92  66  88 /  10  20  50  70
Guadalupe Pass           66  84  62  79 /   0  50  50  60
Hobbs                    64  90  60  82 /  10  20  80  80
Marfa                    57  90  56  84 /   0  50  40  80
Midland Intl Airport     68  90  66  84 /  10   0  70  70
Odessa                   68  90  66  84 /  10  10  70  70
Wink                     68  93  65  86 /   0  10  60  70

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...99