359
FXUS64 KMAF 250709
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
209 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 207 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

- Hot temperatures continue today with major to extreme heat risk.

- The prolonged period of hot temperatures could result in heat
  related illnesses. Be sure to stay hydrated and take frequent
  breaks in air conditioning or the shade if possible.

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop over
  portions of the region late Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 207 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

We`ve got one more "really hot" day before temperatures decrease to
just "hot" as we see a pattern change this week. Model guidance has
finally gotten closer to actual temperatures so averaging that with
the NBM seems like a good bet. Mixing 850 mb temps of 30-34C will
get us highs near 105 across much of the Permian Basin and SE NM
once again. While the forecast calls for a decrease of 1-2 degrees
today, this will be day 8 in a row of 100 degree heat for much of
the area. Thus, a Heat Advisory continues for much of the region.

The upper ridge finally begins to shift west midweek allowing for
northwesterly flow to develop aloft. Showers and storms will develop
Wednesday across the mountains of northern NM and move southeast
with time. Locations with the best chance (40-60%) to see
measurable rain will be from Tatum to Lamesa and then trending down
as you move south and east as storms are expected to fizzle. While
it still looks hot with most locations near 100 again Wednesday,
many locations look to stay in the 90s Thursday/Friday with extra
clouds and moisture around. We will take what we can get at this
point!

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 207 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

The upper ridge builds back overhead by the weekend bringing 100
degree temperatures back and a return to dry conditions. Models do
indicate that the upper ridge will not build back as strong next
week which could help keep temperatures lower than what we are seeing
this week. Unfortunately, rain chances look to remain low.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1043 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in weak return flow, w/a
few high clouds. A few high-based cu are anticipated beginning
early Tuesday afternoon invof KHOB. Convective temps elsewhere
look too high.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring              106  76 102  73 /   0   0   0  30
Carlsbad                106  74 102  73 /   0   0   0  20
Dryden                  104  75 103  76 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton           104  74 102  74 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass           98  71  94  70 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                   105  72 100  70 /   0   0   0  40
Marfa                    98  64  97  64 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport    103  76 101  74 /   0   0   0  20
Odessa                  103  76 101  75 /   0   0   0  20
Wink                    106  75 103  75 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 8 PM
     CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-Borden-Central
     Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains
     Foothills-Dawson-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
     Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Howard-Marfa Plateau-
     Martin-Mitchell-Scurry-Ward-Winkler.

NM...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM MDT this evening for
     Central Lea-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy
     County-Southern Lea.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...29