343
FXUS64 KMAF 310740
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
240 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 151 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

- There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms from the
  Permian Basin to the Big Bend this afternoon and evening. Strong
  and gusty winds are the main threat but there may be a few
  storms with large hail as well.

- Hot temperatures reaching the upper 90s to low 100s are expected
  for highs today and could cause heat stress when doing outdoor
  activities.

- Cooler and wetter weather returns Tuesday and remains through
  the end of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday afternoon)
Issued at 151 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

The dryline has pushed back well to the west and currently extends
from southeastern New Mexico to the Davis Mountains. An upper
disturbance moving northeast out of Mexico will trigger scattered
convection along the dryline with some storms becoming severe.
The main threat will be strong winds west of the dryline where a
very dry subcloud layer is favorable for virga and gusty winds.
These storms may not look impressive on radar but will still be
capable of producing very strong winds. Storms developing or
moving east of the dryline will have a better chance of producing
large hail. Temperatures this afternoon will reach well into the
90s and even a few low 100s, which is 5 to 10 degrees warmer than
normal for this time of year. Similar conditions exist Monday
though the timing of the disturbance doesn`t coincide with max
heating and activity will be more sparse. Temperatures may be a
couple of degrees cooler but it will still be hot.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 151 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Upper flow becomes more southerly Tuesday due to increasing
influence from a deep trough over the West Coast that is slowly
moving east. Increasing instability and moisture brings PoPs up
into the likely range (>50%) Wednesday and Thursday. Hate to get
hopes up too high, but models are similar to last week when many
locations got more than a half an inch of rain with 1-2 inch
amounts not uncommon. There may be a severe threat next week but
the main threat will probably still be localized flooding,
especially in urban areas. Rural areas have received some nice
rain lately but soils can likely hold a bit more rainfall before
we see a major flood threat in open areas.

We haven`t had an above normal precipitation year in Midland
since 2021 and this is a good start to the year. In addition, the
average first 100 degree day at MAF is May 31 so if we do not
reach 100 degrees today, there is a good chance we get to the
middle of June before we reach that mark which would be a cool
start to summer.

Clouds and rainfall bring temps down Tue-Fri with many locations
failing to reach 90 degrees. Drier southwesterly flow becomes
reestablished by the weekend bringing down rain chances and
increasing temps back closer to normal. High pressure fails to
develop over West Texas and eastern New Mexico so rain chances do
not completely go away.

Hennig

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

ISOLD-SCT TS will develop after 18Z possibly affecting all
terminals. Have introduced PROB30 for TS with lower confidence due
to exact location of TS. Any terminals not getting TS directly on
station will have it affecting the local flying area. Erratic wind
speeds and direction changes will be the main threats even for
sites where TS is not observed on site. Activity moves east and
diminishes after 03Z.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               99  70  97  70 /  20  30   0   0
Carlsbad                 99  66  99  68 /  10  10  20  20
Dryden                   97  71  96  72 /  20  10   0   0
Fort Stockton            98  68  97  69 /  50  20  20  10
Guadalupe Pass           89  66  89  66 /  10  10  20  20
Hobbs                    98  64  96  65 /  30  10  20  20
Marfa                    93  56  92  57 /  40  10  30  20
Midland Intl Airport     97  68  96  70 /  20  30   0  10
Odessa                   97  69  96  70 /  30  20   0  10
Wink                    100  68  98  70 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...10