606
FXUS64 KMAF 162237
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
537 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 536 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

- Hot temperatures can be expected through the middle of the week
  and a Heat Advisory is in effect for Tuesday. Many locations
  will reach near or above 100 degrees during this time, with a
  few locations along the Rio Grande potentially reaching up to
  108-113 degrees.

- Near normal temperatures return beginning Thursday and
  continuing through next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday night)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

We don`t have an outflow boundary moving through the area this
afternoon like we did yesterday, so there is nothing keeping
temperatures from climbing well into the 90s with some 100s likely
before peak heating is done. Satellite is showing cumulus
developing over the Davis Mountains and Big Bend which could lead
to a stray shower or two, but nothing of concern.

Models still show an upper trough dampening a high to our west
and stretching the ridge axis along the I-20 corridor up into
North Texas tomorrow. Westerly winds increase and many areas are
expected to increase well above 100 degrees and a Heat Advisory
has been issued for Tuesday afternoon. A few counties off the
caprock in the eastern basin will be a little "cooler", though
still above the century mark, but not quite high enough to warrant
an advisory. Heat risk is the primary messaging with plenty of
hydration and limited outdoor exposure the best way to prevent
heat stress.

Hennig

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

The trough that dampens the ridge moves into the Central Plains on
Wednesday pushing a weak cold front into the area. The current
forecast has temperatures decreasing slightly, especially behind
the front though temps ahead of the front may not drop much so
the location of this boundary will be important for the high
forecast. In addition, differential heating across the boundary
and moisture pooling south of the front could allow for isolated
storms to form near the Stockton Plateau.

High pressure builds in the wake of the trough over New Mexico but
quickly shifts to the east over the Mississippi River Valley by
the weekend. Southeasterly flow on the western periphery of the
high opens up flow from off the gulf advecting in temperatures
much closer to normal for the weekend and possibly even slightly
below normal. That would be a welcome relief. Also, while the
extended forecast is mostly dry, just beyond our forecast time
frame models are showing better rain chances for early next week.
Any rain would be helpful.

Hennig

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 536 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

VFR prevails through the period with gusty south winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               76 103  75  99 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 73 106  72  99 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   75 104  77 104 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            76 106  75 101 /   0  20  10   0
Guadalupe Pass           73  99  70  92 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                    72 105  66  96 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    65  98  66  96 /  10  10   0  10
Midland Intl Airport     76 106  76 101 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   76 105  75 100 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     75 108  72 101 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/
     Tuesday for Andrews-Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-
     Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains
     Foothills-Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Ector-Gaines-Guadalupe
     Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
     Loving-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-
     Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves County Plains-Terrell-Van Horn
     and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

NM...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Tuesday for Central Lea-
     Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-
     Northern Lea-Southern Lea.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...29