188
FXUS64 KMAF 131725
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1225 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1222 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

- Temperatures remain above normal this week, but a gradual
  cooling trend develops especially during the latter half of the
  week.

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible over
  the higher terrain each day through the period. Storm chances
  also increase again over portions of southeast New Mexico this
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday afternoon)
Issued at 135 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

After a couple days of widespread triple digit heat, temperatures
finally cool a few degrees as the upper-level ridge moves east.
While most locations can expect to see highs in the upper 90s today
and Monday (mid 80s to low 90s in the mountains), triple digit highs
become confined to the river valleys and northeast Permian Basin.
Surface troughing and upslope flow yields low (10-20%) shower/storm
chances across the higher terrain and portions of southeast New
Mexico both days. Gusty winds and brief heavy rainfall would be the
primary threats should a storm become strong. Breezy conditions
associated with the surface trough (and LLJ tonight) can also be
anticipated.

Greening

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 135 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

The Long Term forecast remains relatively unchanged. The center of
the upper-level ridge remains east of our area through much of this
week. However, because we will be on the western periphery of the
ridge, temperatures stay above normal. Highs in the mid-to-upper 90s
will be commonplace Tuesday and Wednesday, with 100s confined mainly
to the river valleys. By the latter half of the week, the ridge
starts to shift westward again, but is dampened by shortwaves moving
across northern portions of the CONUS. As a result, temperatures
tick down a degree or two Thursday, and by Friday most locations top
out in the low-to-mid 90s. Surface troughing and pulses rounding the
ridge will also yield increasing rain chances across mainly the
western half of the region and in/near the higher terrain. Chances
for these areas range from 30-60% in general. Going into the
weekend, guidance continues to depict a front pushing down towards
west Texas and southeast New Mexico. This front would help further
cool temperatures across the region, and would encourage increasing
rain chances across a larger portion of the area. However, exact
details regarding the timing of the front, rain chances, and the
extent of cooling remain uncertain at this time. Given this
uncertainty, the NBM is justifiably a bit conservative, showing
highs in the upper 80s and low 90s for most locations Saturday and
Sunday, which would at least be near climatology for this time of
year. We will continue to monitor trends, so stay tuned for updates!

Sprang

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

VFR conditions continue for the TAF period. Winds mainly southerly
between 10-15kts with gusts around 20kts. Gusts decreasing
tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               75  99  75 100 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 74 100  72  99 /  10  10  30  30
Dryden                   76  99  76  99 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            73  98  73  98 /   0  10  10  20
Guadalupe Pass           69  90  69  88 /  10  10  20  20
Hobbs                    71  97  71  97 /  10  10   0  20
Marfa                    64  91  63  91 /   0  20  10  40
Midland Intl Airport     74  97  75  98 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   75  97  75  98 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     75 100  75 100 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...93