751
FXUS64 KMAF 022000
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
300 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 219 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

- Shower and thunderstorm chances increase across much of west
  Texas and southeast New Mexico starting tonight through at
  least Friday. We will be keeping a close eye on the flash flood
  potential during this time.

- Cloud cover and rain chances keep temperatures below normal
  Wednesday through Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 219 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

An active weather pattern once again develops for west Texas and
southeast New Mexico starting this afternoon. Upper-level troughing
is evident this afternoon near southern California. This trough will
gradually make its way towards our area through the rest of the
week. In the meantime, once again this afternoon scattered showers
and thunderstorms will develop across the higher terrain west of the
Pecos River. Similar to yesterday, storms that develop this
afternoon could become strong to marginally severe, posing a large
hail and damaging wind threat. For tonight, the latest runs of
convective-allowing models have come into better agreement depicting
a cluster of storms developing in southeast New Mexico and moving
across the Permian Basin. By this time, precipitable water will have
increased to 1.0-1.5 inches across the area, which is well over the
90th percentile (approaching daily record territory). As a result,
flash flooding will be our main concern as this cluster moves across
these areas.

The cluster of storms clears the area by Wednesday morning. After
that occurs, forecast confidence becomes lower overall. Guidance
indicates there may be a general break in activity late Wednesday
morning into the afternoon for portions of the area (mainly much of
the Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico). However, medium (40-
60%) PoPs are maintained in the higher terrain west of the Pecos
thanks to continued upslope flow. Additional showers and
thunderstorms may once again move across portions of southeast New
Mexico and the Permian Basin Wednesday night/early Thursday morning,
but convective-allowing models have been notably slower to catch
onto this solution than coarser resolution models. In any case, rain
chances will continue from early Thursday morning through portions
of the Long Term Period as the trough continues its slow approach
towards our area. While issuing a Flood Watch was heavily considered
on this shift, low confidence in shower/storm coverage after tonight
and the potential for long breaks in activity dissuaded us from
doing so yet. That being said, should model agreement increase and
converge towards a wetter solution Wednesday onward, a watch may be
deemed necessary later on (especially given our anomalously high
PWATs and antecedent wet soils). Otherwise, highs today top out in
the upper 80s and low 90s, but fall into the 80s for most tomorrow
thanks to dense cloud cover.

Sprang

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 219 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

The unsettled weather pattern will continue across west Texas and
southeast New Mexico through the latter part of the week. A slow
moving upper-level trough will remain oriented over eastern New
Mexico and west Texas Thursday into Thursday night. An upper-level
low will gradually become cut off over the vicinity of Sonora/
Chihuahua MX on Friday. Abundant deep-layer moisture will remain
oriented over our forecast area ahead of this system through late
this week with precipitable water values remaining very high
between 1.0-1.4 inches. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms will develop across the region Thursday into Friday,
with the best chances (50-70 percent) focused from the Permian
Basin to the Lower Trans Pecos/Davis Mountains/Marfa Plateau/
Big Bend region. We will need to continue to monitor the potential
for locally heavy rainfall and an associated flooding threat with
storms that develop in the moist airmass across our region late
this week. A few strong to marginally severe storms will be
possible during the afternoon and evening. Temperatures will
remain below normal through the end of the week with highs mostly
in the 80s and lows generally in the 60s.

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to
develop across the region on Saturday as the upper-level trough
axis remains over the region. This feature finally shifts to the
east of our region on Sunday with upper-level ridging building in
through Monday. Convection will become much less in coverage and
mainly relegated to the eastern Permian Basin/Lower Trans Pecos
both days. Temperatures heat back up into the 90s Sunday and
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

VFR conditions prevail. Showers and thunderstorms begin to develop
this afternoon in the higher terrain west of the Pecos River.
Convection gradually spreads closer to TAF sites this evening and
overnight. PROB30s have been maintained for all sites, and
amendments may be necessary later this evening to add TEMPOs for
thunderstorms (particularly at FST or CNM). Gusty southeasterly
winds diminish overnight (outside of any wind from nearby
thunderstorms). Winds briefly become northeasterly overnight before
becoming southeasterly again by the end of the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               68  85  65  84 /  40  50  50  60
Carlsbad                 64  84  63  85 /  80  30  50  30
Dryden                   72  90  69  87 /  20  40  30  30
Fort Stockton            67  87  65  87 /  40  60  30  50
Guadalupe Pass           62  77  61  79 /  50  40  50  40
Hobbs                    61  80  60  82 /  70  60  50  60
Marfa                    56  83  55  82 /  30  60  30  80
Midland Intl Airport     67  83  65  83 /  60  70  50  50
Odessa                   66  82  65  83 /  60  70  50  50
Wink                     66  84  64  85 /  60  60  50  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...13