434
FXUS64 KMAF 012327
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
627 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 625 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

- Above-normal temperatures will gradually increase through
  Thursday, which will be the warmest day this forecast.

- Rain chances resume Friday afternoon, and increase through
  Saturday night as a disturbance moves through the region.

- A cold front will bring normal to below-normal temperatures
  Saturday though Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday night)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

The forecast remains similar to the previous forecast package.
Current satellite and radar imagery depicts weak lingering storms
along the Presidio Valley. Additional storm development is expected
to occur this afternoon for areas south of the Interstate 10
corridor, thanks to a weak stationary boundary set up near deep
south Texas extending south of the Big Bend region. Both the weak
boundary and terrain influences will supply moisture and lift for
these storms to occur. Given the position of the boundary, areas
along the Rio Grande/Presidio valleys, Big Bend region, and Davis
Mountains are going to have the greatest (20-50%) chance in seeing
these storms early to late afternoon. High resolution forecast
soundings depict lower PWAT values compared to the last couple of
days. Heavy rainfall and frequent lightning will still be the
primary threats associated with these storms. Storm motion remains
more on the slower side, therefore, localized flash flooding will
still be evident especially for areas that have received rainfall
recently. Temperatures are forecast to stay on the cooler side with
highs reaching the 80s to low 90s regionwide. Areas across the
higher terrain look to have highs in the mid to upper 70s this
afternoon. By this evening, any storms left over from the afternoon
are expected to dissipate near sunset.

Tuesday, upper-level ridging becomes a more dominant feature over
the region shifting flow aloft to northwesterly/northerly. This will
increase subsidence promoting dry and warmer conditions across the
forecast area. High temperatures are expected to be slightly above
normal (forecast highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s) for this time of
year. The dry and warming trend continues heading into the long-term
period.

Lamberson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Wednesday, a highly-amplified ridge will extend from West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico all the way up through eastern Washington and
into British Columbia, leaving dry, northwest flow aloft over the
region.  Thicknesses will be on the increase, with highs Wednesday
afternoon coming in at 4-6 F above climatology.  In this synoptic
pattern, chances of rain are slim-to-none.

Thursday, the pattern remains virtually the same, only thicknesses
peak for the week, yielding what looks to be the warmest day this
forecast as highs plateau ~ 7-9 F above normal.  Again, grids remain
dry.

Thursday night/Friday, the ridge begins attenuating as a cold front
approaches.  To the southwest, the GFS and ECMWF bring remnants of a
tropical disturbance across the Gulf of California and into Sonora,
increasing PWATs and bringing minimal chances of convection to the
higher terrain out west as shortwaves move up through the west side
of the ridge.

Saturday, the aforementioned tropical remnants evolve into a trough
in subtropical flow, and move through West Texas and Southeast New
Mexico.  By 00Z Sunday, the GFS increases PWATs at KMAF to around
1.75", well over the 90th percentile for this time of year.  As the
trough moves through the region, rain chances will increase to 20-
30% across the area, with best chances for rain this forecast
Saturday evening or so as a cold front drops in behind the trough.

The front arrives late Saturday night/Sunday, and for those who like
cooler weather, Sunday should be downright pleasant as highs come in
a couple of degrees below normal.

Monday looks a bit warmer as ridging begins redeveloping over the
Gulf of California, with minimal chances of convection in the east,
chasing the exiting trough.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

VFR remains for the TAF period. Sustained winds stay around 10kts
or less with occasional gusts. Winds shift to the north during the
day tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               66  93  64  95 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 66  92  65  95 /   0  10   0   0
Dryden                   68  92  68  96 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            64  91  65  94 /   0  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           63  83  64  86 /   0  10   0   0
Hobbs                    64  91  62  93 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    56  83  56  87 /   0  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     67  94  66  96 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   67  92  66  94 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     65  92  65  95 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...93