043
FXUS64 KMAF 191059
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
559 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 554 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

- Very warm to hot temperatures each day with low (less than 20%)
  shower/storm chances over the western higher terrain each
  afternoon/evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 114 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

A mid to upper ridge located over the Intermountain West through
the Southern Great Plains will continue to provide large scale
sinking motion over the area through the next two days. This will
keep any shower/storm chances low (less than 20%). This will apply
even for higher elevations of the Guadalupes through the Davis
Mountains, where the best chances for any storms from heating of
elevated terrain will exist. Any stronger storms will be capable
of heavy rain, frequent lightning, small hail, and strong and
variable winds Amid south/southeast upslope winds but dew point
temperatures remaining below 60F, 55F western higher terrain, very
warm to hot but dry weather is expected across SE NM and W TX.
Highs today under mostly clear skies (apparent even early this
morning in IR satellite imagery showing absence of much if any
even high level cloud cover) rise into the 100F-105F range,
95F-100F higher elevations and southeast Permian Basin, and
105F-110F range for the Big Bend. Due to low dew point
temperatures, no heat advisory conditions are expected. However,
everyone is still encouraged to take proper heat safety
precautions: limit time spent outdoors during the hottest part of
the day, drink plenty of water, take frequent breaks in the shade
if outdoors, and do not leave people or pets in locked vehicles.
Lows tonight fall into the 70F-75F range, 75F-80F range
easternmost and southernmost regions, and 65F-70F northern Lea
County into northwest Permian Basin as well as western higher
terrain. Tomorrow, similar story in terms of high and low
temperatures with low (less than 20%) shower/storm chances, but
perhaps slightly more humid due to winds having a more
upslope/easterly component.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 114 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

The quiet weather pattern prevails for the end of the week and
weekend into early next week. Mid to upper disturbances within
troughing over the Central Great Plains will largely remain
confined farther north E NM and the TX panhandle, with the
accompanying lift and moisture convergence remaining away from the
area keeping PoPs below 30% and any storm activity isolated. Very
warm to hot temperatures similar to the past few days will
persist amidst generally south/southeast winds, while apparent
temperatures remaining below heat advisory criteria while dew
point temperatures remain in the 40s and 50s F for most of the
area will likely preclude any issuance of heat products. Everyone
is still encouraged to take proper heat safety precautions.
Overnight cooling will not change much. Overall, the very
uneventful temperatures prevail as we head into the middle to end
of August, with no major pattern change yet in sight.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 554 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the period. Light southerly to
southeasterly winds (generally around 10 kts) are expected. Winds
will slightly increase again during the afternoon and early
evening where occasional gusts up to 20 kts may occur.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring              102  75 102  76 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                103  73 102  73 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                  102  75 102  76 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton           100  73 100  74 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           94  70  93  70 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                   101  71 101  71 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    94  63  96  63 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport    100  75 100  75 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                  100  75 100  76 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                    102  75 102  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...11