403
FXUS64 KMAF 122058
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
258 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 256 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

- Near record warmth and dry weather conditions expected through
  the weekend.

- An upper-level storm system late this weekend brings cooler
  temperatures and gusty winds early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday night)
Issued at 256 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

Dry weather conditions and above normal temperatures will continue
as upper-level ridging builds across southeast New Mexico and west
Texas through the short term period and surface lee troughing
develops over eastern New Mexico and portions of west Texas. Skies
will remain mostly clear with POPs at zero through Thursday night.
Lows tonight and Thursday night will range from the lower 40s to
lower 50s over most of the area. Near record warmth is anticipated
on Thursday with highs mostly ranging in the lower to mid 80s. The
record for November 13th at MAF is 84 set in 1989.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 256 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

Upper level ridge centers itself across the Great Plains and Texas
by Friday. Record highs in the mid 80s are forecasted across West
Texas and southeast New Mexico. The KMAF record highs on Friday and
Saturday are 85F and 84F with the current forecast being 86F and 85F
respectively. This warmth continues through Sunday before the
pattern begins to change. A large upper level low lifts out of the
Desert Southwest and into the Rockies north of our area. It does
send a Pacific Front from west to east over the course of the day on
Sunday. Highs move a few degrees lower, but remain well above
normal. Frontal passage will be dry, so rain continues to elude the
CWA through this weekend. Long range guidance brings rain chances
back by the middle of next week. However, uncertainty in that time
frame remains high as models are not in good agreement on timing or
the track of the second upper low moving out of the western US.

-Stickney

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1137 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

VFR with clear skies and light winds will continue through the
forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               46  84  53  86 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 43  85  48  85 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   49  82  51  83 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            52  87  54  88 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           51  74  54  76 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    44  83  47  84 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    44  81  44  81 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     48  83  53  85 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   48  83  53  84 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     42  85  47  84 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...21