439
FXUS64 KMAF 120415
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1115 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1114 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

- Unseasonably warm temperatures begin Tuesday, persisting
  through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday night)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

An upper level shortwave trough, along with a surface high on its
backside, shift eastward this evening into tonight. Winds return out
of the southeast and lows largely settle into 50s tonight.
Temperatures begin to trend upward Tuesday, as an upper ridge
approaches from the west and surface winds become southwesterly.
Expect highs in the upper 80s within the higher terrain, with 90s
for almost everyone else Tuesday afternoon. Lows Tuesday night
cool into the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Upper level ridging remains in control of our weather Wednesday.
Highs Wednesday afternoon are forecast to top out in the mid to
upper 90s regionwide, with triple digits near along the river
valleys and adjacent areas. South and southeasterly winds become
breezy Wednesday evening as a lee trough extends down into eastern
New Mexico. Wednesday night, upper ridging begins to give way to an
approaching shortwave from the west. Lee troughing over the Plains
keeps south and southwesterly winds breezy through Thursday evening.
Temperatures Thursday will be relatively similar to Wednesday.
Despite upper troughing, triple digit heat expands to include a more
portions of the Permian Basin Friday given southwesterly downsloping
winds. Highs in the upper 90s and low 100s remain through the
weekend. The hottest conditions are forecast along the Rio Grande,
where afternoon temperatures may reach near Extreme Heat criteria
through the weekend. We will continue to monitor trends as we head
through the week. Lows each night are expected to dip into the 60s
to low 70s. Long-range guidance hints at another trough approaching
our region Saturday evening. Increased moisture and southwesterly
flow aloft may aid in the development of shower/storm activity,
primarily over the eastern half of our region Sunday afternoon and
evening. As of now, rain chances are low (10-20%). We will have
to see how this next system evolves heading through the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1114 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, in light return flow.
Forecast soundings suggest a few cu could develop invof KHOB
Tuesday afternoon, at around 9 kft AGL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               80  57  93  63 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 82  57  98  63 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   84  61  92  63 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            82  59  96  63 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           75  57  87  64 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    81  54  95  60 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    80  48  90  53 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     81  58  93  63 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   81  59  93  64 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     82  59  95  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...99