220
FXUS64 KMAF 111703
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1203 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1200 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

- Rain chances begin increasing tonight and peak late Sunday night
  before tapering off Tuesday afternoon. Best chances will be
  over Southeast New Mexico and areas of West Texas to the south.

- Warm and dry conditions return for the remainder of the upcoming
  work week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 142 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

The short term forecast begins with the pattern shifting. Upper
level ridging that has dominated and kept temperatures above normal
begins shifting to the southeast as an upper low begins to push in
from the west. In addition to the upper low, remnant tropical
moisture moves in from the Pacific. For tonight, this translates
to 10-40% rain chances moving into the western portions of the CWA
including southeast New Mexico and the higher terrain. Rain
chances further increase heading into Sunday with 30-50% PoPs over
SE NM and 10-30% PoPs for portions of the Permian Basin, mainly
west of Midland/Odessa. WHile an upper level disturbance does pass
over the area, temperatures don`t look to respond significantly
and highs both today and on Saturday stay above normal in the 80s
to low 90s for most. Lows drop into the upper 50s across the
higher terrain and into the 60s everywhere else.

-Stickney

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 142 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

This weekend, an upper-level ridge becomes wedged between a trough
over the western US and another trough over the southeastern US. The
ridge will stretch across central Mexico toward the Great Lakes
region. Southwesterly flow aloft sends plentiful moisture
streaming in from the remnants of tropical systems currently over
the eastern Pacific. Sunday evening, this moisture looks to
coincide with lift provided by a shortwave disturbance and a cold
front dropping down from the Panhandle. Rain chances across the
region are forecast to range anywhere from 10-70%, with best odds
over the higher terrain on our western fringes. Rain chances drop
back a touch Monday (10-50%), with best chances over southeastern
New Mexico. The disturbance departs northeastward early Tuesday
morning, taking our rain chances with it. The greatest concern
with this event will be occasionally heavy rainfall leading to
flash flooding. This will definitely be something to monitor
closely. Otherwise, rainy/cloudy conditions and the approaching
cold front keep temperatures Monday afternoon in the 70s over
southeast New Mexico and the higher terrain in west Texas, 80s for
most everyone else. Upper-level ridging begins to take back the
reins Tuesday ahead of another system set to swing by next
weekend. Dry conditions and a gradual warming trend sets in
Tuesday through Friday. Highs will generally range within the
80s/90s, with morning lows in the 50s/60s.

-Lopez

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Southeast return flow
will veer to southwest as an upper level storm system approaches.
Clouds will increase, as well. Convection will be possible all
terminals by the end of the forecast period, but chances are too
low/far out for a mention attm.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               65  89  66  86 /   0  10  20  20
Carlsbad                 66  84  63  79 /  20  50  60  40
Dryden                   63  91  65  88 /   0  10  10  10
Fort Stockton            66  89  64  88 /  10  20  30  20
Guadalupe Pass           61  71  57  71 /  40  70  70  40
Hobbs                    62  83  61  78 /  10  50  60  40
Marfa                    56  80  57  80 /  20  40  50  30
Midland Intl Airport     66  87  66  84 /   0  20  30  20
Odessa                   66  86  66  83 /   0  20  30  20
Wink                     66  86  64  84 /  10  40  50  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...99