205
FXUS64 KMAF 292332
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
632 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 624 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

- Numerous showers/storms from Terrell County through the Stockton Plateau
  expected beginning 12 pm through 3 pm, spreading north into the
  Permian Basin 3 pm through 7 pm.

- Highest chance (70% or greater) of showers/storms and flash
  flooding from sunset this evening through midnight tonight.

- Drier weather this weekend, followed by windy conditions early
  next week, accompanied by a return to cooler temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Skies will remain mostly cloudy with persistent low cloud decks
as the remnants of TC Vance move in from the southwest and a mid
to upper disturbance over the Desert SW provide widespread lift.
High- res CAMs depict numerous showers/storms lifting north from
the Big Bend and developing north from the Marfa Plateau into
Stockton Plateau 12 pm through 3 pm, and then much of the Permian
Basin from 3 pm through 7 pm. With widespread clouds from lift
over the area and TC Vance weakening rapidly to a mainly mid-level
circulation aloft, near surface instability will be limited as
highs remain in the mid 60s to mid 70s F. As a result, SPC only
has us outlooked in a general t`storm area. However, with strongly
veering winds and at least 35 knots of shear throughout the
atmosphere apparent on model forecast soundings, a brief damaging
wind gust or spinup in any stronger showers/storms still cannot be
ruled out.

The bigger story however, will be flash flooding. A Flood Watch
remains in effect from this afternoon through Friday evening and
has been expanded to encompass the entire area, due to heavy
rainfall of 2" to 3" that fell over western higher terrain
yesterday. Places with poor drainage such as low lying and urban
regions, sloped terrain, and places that experience repeated
rounds of heavy rains will all be most at risk for flooding
impacts. PWATs increase above the 90th percentile for this time of
year from the Big Bend through Permian Basin, with up to 1.5" on
model forecast soundings. Lower PWATs still 1.2" to 1.4" farther
west from the Presidio Valley into SE NM plains will still run
above average for this time of year. Therefore, there will be
plenty of moisture to work with to present a flash flooding threat
there as well, especially given saturated soils due to heavy
rains yesterday. Peak timing of heaviest rain will likely be from
7 pm through midnight. During this period, a greater than 60%
chance of showers/storms is present for much of the area, even
though not everyone is guaranteed to see rainfall. Ensembles
depict widespread 0.5" to 1.0" from the Presidio Valley into Eddy
County Plains, and 1" to 3" from Terrell County through the
Permian Basin by Friday morning, with high (70% or greater)
probabilities of at least 1.5" to 2.5" for the northern Permian
Basin - where the most widespread and heaviest rain is expected
Thursday evening through Friday. Lows tonight fall into the mid
50s to lower 60s F tonight as winds shift to the north and
bringing in drier air behind the remnants of TC Vance lifting off
to the northeast. As rain chances taper off from southwest to
northeast and decrease below medium (35% to 45%) for the Permian
Basin by Friday afternoon, continued widespread cloud cover keeps
highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s F, apart from upper 70s to
lower 80s F along the Rio Grande. Lows Friday night remain similar
to tonight under light and variable winds. A quieter but more
active upper air pattern then follows.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

A drier weekend is in store, before another mid to upper storm
system early next week brings strong winds across the area. Highs
Saturday rise into the 70s F, 80s F along the Rio Grande basin
under clearer skies and renewed light southerly winds. A low (less
than 30%) chance of showers/storms over the Marfa Plateau into
Lower Trans Pecos from daytime heating of elevated terrain is
expected afternoon/evening, with storms diminishing after sunset
while lows fall into the mid 50s to mid 60s F range. A more
progressive weather pattern beginning late weekend Sunday brings
another round of higher rain chances (above 30%) Sunday for
northern parts of the area, although the best forcing and
therefore heaviest rainfall are likely to remain to the north of
the area. Highs warm back into the mid 70s to mid 80s F by Sunday,
with warmer temperatures continuing through Monday. Winds shift
from southerly to westerly from Sunday night through Monday
morning, with winds 35 mph or greater indicated for the
Guadalupes/Delawares. These winds may persist through Tuesday,
before cooler temperatures (upper 60s to lower 70s F highs, mid
40s to mid 50s F lows) and lighter winds return to the area by the
middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

-SHRA will continue across most terminals this evening into the overnight
 hours. A few +SHRA may occur especially for MAF, CNM, HOB, and
 INK sites during this timeframe which will bring erratic variable
 winds, while reducing VIS and CIGs. CIGs are expected to lower
 below 3000 ft over most terminals this evening, continuing
 through at least the morning hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               57  63  57  72 / 100  90  40  10
Carlsbad                 57  70  55  73 /  90  20   0  10
Dryden                   60  72  61  73 / 100  50  40   0
Fort Stockton            60  72  57  77 /  90  30   0  10
Guadalupe Pass           55  64  54  68 /  80  20   0  10
Hobbs                    55  64  52  71 / 100  60  10  10
Marfa                    53  69  52  72 /  70  10   0  10
Midland Intl Airport     58  65  57  72 / 100  70  30  10
Odessa                   59  65  57  72 / 100  80  30  10
Wink                     59  70  56  73 / 100  30  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch through Friday evening for Andrews-Borden-Central
     Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis
     Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Eastern
     Culberson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe Mountains Above
     7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Howard-Loving-
     Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-
     Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-
     Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

NM...Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for Central Lea-Eddy County
     Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Northern Lea-
     Southern Lea.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...11