797
FXUS64 KMAF 091805
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
105 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 102 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

- 15% to 35% chance of showers/storms Sunday afternoon through
  evening for the northern and eastern Permian Basin into Terrell
  County as well as the Guadalupes into Lower Trans Pecos. A few
  storms may be strong, with damaging winds, hail, and brief
  heavy rainfall.

- Cooler behind a cold front early week, followed by unseasonably warm
  temperatures through most of next week, with rain chances
  returning by the end of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 102 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Forecast remains on track for a warm start to the weekend and
slightly cooler end to the weekend behind a cold front Sunday.
VIS/IR satellite imagery depicts little in the way of any active
weather, and for most of today apart from a stray shower/storm, we
can expect that to continue. Highs 5 degrees warmer than
yesterday and in the upper 80s to lower 90s F will be widespread,
with a dryline situated over the north-central Permian Basin into
Big Bend and dew point temperatures below 60F except for Terrell
County keeping Heat Risk low. Lows tonight fall into the mid 50s
to upper 60s F range as the dryline retrogrades west and allows
for more humid air over the eastern Permian Basin and Stockton
Plateau, however, despite calm winds and high relative humidity,
no mist/fog formation is indicated for those regions at this time.
Tomorrow, a cold front currently located over the Northern into
Central Great Plains will develop down through the area. General
timing of the frontal passage per wind shift from southerly to
northerly appears to be Sunday morning through early Sunday
afternoon. The passage of the cold front will mean locations
behind the front only have highs rising into the upper 70s to mid
80s F, whereas ahead of the cold front, highs apart from the
western terrain rise into the 90s F and above for the Rio Grande
basin into Terrell County. With passage of the cold front
increasing boundary layer moisture and overrunning, a low (20% to
35%) chance of showers/storms develops Sunday afternoon through
evening over northern eastern Permian Basin into Terrell County,
with a lower (around 15% to 30%) chance of showers/storms over
western higher terrain. General storm motion per high-res CAMs is
expected to be northwest to southeast. SPC has easternmost parts
of the forecast area in a MRGL to SLGT risk, with hail and
damaging winds the main risks in any storms, and the threat
remaining greater east of the forecast area. Due to the expected
quick moving and isolated coverage of storms, widespread flooding
is not expected, with rainfall likely remaining only a few tenths
of an inch where rain does fall. Lows Sunday night fall into the
50s to lower 60s F for much of the area as CAA behind the cold
front persists. Cooler temperatures will be short-lived however.
See the Long Term Discussion for more details.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 102 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Residual cooler air behind the cold front late weekend persists
into Monday, before mid to upper ridging and accompanying large
scale sinking motion builds in from the west and southwest. Monday
might end up the coolest day of the short and long term, as highs
in the mid 70s to 80s F and lows in the 50s to lower 60s F
prevail for one more day amidst dew point temperatures remaining
largely in the 40s and 50s F. Dew point temperatures in this range
persist through next week preventing extremely dry conditions
from accompanying the returning hot temperatures. By Tuesday,
highs in the mid 80s to mid 90s F and lows in the upper 50s to mid
60s F return, followed by highs and lows a few degrees warmer
Wednesday, then highs in the 90s to lower 100s F and lows in the
60s to lower 70s F apart from upper 50s F northern Lea County and
Marfa Plateau through next weekend. Due to the strength of the
ridging, only stray afternoon/evening rain chances are indicated,
with highest chances over the Guadalupes into Lower Trans Pecos
from heating of elevated terrain. At this time, we do not see the
potential for extreme heat despite temperatures more similar to
early July than early to mid May forecast, but we will continue to
monitor the potential for hazardous heat following this weekend`s
cold front. Rain chances will again increase at the end of the
week, but exact details regarding any shower/storm activity at the
end of next week remain unclear at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1201 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

VFR conditions with southerly winds through 07Z-10Z tonight into
Sunday morning. Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots forecast beginning
01Z-05Z for terminals on the eastern Permian Basin into Stockton
Plateau in a LLJ. With a cold front moving south through the area
tomorrow morning, winds shift to northerly 11Z-16Z and increase up
to and above 25 knots for terminals over the SE NM plains and
northwest Permian Basin. Low (15% to 35%) rain chances develop for
terminals over northernmost Permian Basin by the end of the
period early Sunday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               67  90  57  82 /   0  20  10   0
Carlsbad                 63  88  57  83 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   66  99  64  84 /   0  10  10   0
Fort Stockton            66  97  60  84 /   0   0  10   0
Guadalupe Pass           63  82  57  76 /   0  10   0   0
Hobbs                    61  83  52  81 /   0  10   0   0
Marfa                    52  91  50  81 /   0  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     66  90  58  82 /   0  10   0   0
Odessa                   66  90  58  82 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     63  91  58  83 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...94