888
FXUS64 KMAF 011859
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1259 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1258 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

- Slight chance (25% to 35%) of strong to severe storms 7-8 pm through
  12-1 am for parts of SE NM plains. Main risks are damaging
  winds, brief heavy rainfall, and line-embedded tornadoes.

- Strong west winds (40 to 50 mph, gusts up to 65 mph) for the
  Guadalupes/Delawares Monday morning through Monday evening.

- Mild daytime temperatures (60s to 70s F highs) and chilly
  nighttime temperatures (40s to 50s F lows) rest of week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 1258 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

A warmer day is in store for the first day of November, but
unlike yesterday, there is also a chance of storms. Mid to upper
level ridging increases ahead of a system currently progressing
across the Great Basin into the Desert SW. This system spreads
increased southwest winds over the area and focuses moisture
aloft, while persistent near surface southeast winds transport
warm (mid 70s to 80s F) and humid (60s F dew point temperatures)
to the foothills of the western higher terrain. With such
instability present, some high- res CAMs depict tail end of storms
from east-central NM developing into parts of the SE NM plains
from 7-8 pm through 12-1 am, especially for Lea County. Shear
increases above 35 knots and SRH above 80 m2/s2 in model forecast
soundings, favorable for both damaging wind gusts and line-
embedded tornadoes in any storms that hold together as they
develop east/northeast. PWATs above 1" will likely be offset by
fast storm motion, limiting hydrologic impacts to brief heavy
rainfall. SPC has increased extent of the MRGL risk area over the
SE NM plains, while PoPs have trended up, even though coverage
remains isolated and not everyone will see rain. Highs will be
characterized by much the same mid 70s to 80s F temperatures.
Forcing for storms will also be provided overnight by a Pacific
cold front developing east. West of this front, lows drop into the
50s F, while ahead, lows remain in the 60s F. As the frontal
passage occurs, southerly winds increase to 15 to 25 mph, then
shift to westerly. This sets the stage for a period of strong
winds beginning early Monday morning.

Westerly sustained winds 40 to 50 mph with gusts up to 65 mph
(highest chance 45% to 50% for northern Guadalupes Monday morning
through early afternoon) are still indicated for the
Guadalupes/Delawares beginning sunrise-mid-morning and continuing
through early evening-late tomorrow night. As a result, the High
Wind Watch during this period for the Guadalupes/Delawares has
been upgraded to a High Wind Warning. Winds of this magnitude will
pose a risk to high profile vehicles and light aircraft, and
reduce visibility in patchy blowing dust (despite recent wetting
rains). Travel through the passes and Carlsbad Caverns National
Park is not advised tomorrow. Winds will still gust to 25 to 35
mph for lowlands leeward of western higher terrain and behind the
Pacific cold front. There is a very low (less than 25%) chance of
showers/storms for the easternmost Permian Basin into Terrell
County in the afternoon/evening if the Pacific cold front is not
able to clear all of the area, and strong storms cannot be ruled
out. In spite of strong west winds behind the front and highs
falling into the 60s to lower 70s F higher elevations, highs
remain in the 70s F for adjacent foothills and 80s F for lowlands
both behind and ahead of the cold front. The real cooldown arrives
Monday night as west winds shift to northwest/north and lows fall
into the 40s F western higher terrain, lower 50s F adjacent
foothills and plains, and mid 50s to lower 60s F elsewhere. Mild
weather within the terrain modified Pacific air mass persists for
the rest of the week. Read the Long Term Discussion for more
details.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1258 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

A fast paced but subdued alternating ridging/troughing mid to
upper air pattern sets in within more zonal flow behind the
Pacific cold front and associated mid to upper air system. This
maintains highs within the mid 60s to mid 70s F and lows within
the 40s to lower 50s F each day/night, as well as very low (less
than 10%) rain chances. Dew point temperatures largely settle in
the 40s F, drier than what we`ve experienced since summer and
enough to result in diurnal variation of at least 20F-25F. Coupled
with longer nights and clearer skies, the seasonal pattern will
feel very attuned with the calendar, bringing the first real
consistent cooler weather of autumn to the area. Frost will be
possible on cooler nights for higher elevations of the Marfa
Plateau, slowly putting an end to this year`s growing season for
that region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1108 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

IFR/LIFR cigs will persist into the overnight hours, mainly
KCNM/KHOB/KPEQ, w/MVFR KMAF. Models are not handling this very
well, and expect a lot of variability next 12 hrs or so. However,
as winds veer to westerly near the end of the forecast period,
expect conditions to rapidly scatter out to VFR as westerlies
increase and become gusty.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               64  81  54  70 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 60  74  51  68 /  20   0   0   0
Dryden                   63  81  59  72 /   0   0  10   0
Fort Stockton            64  83  53  70 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           57  65  46  62 /  30  10   0   0
Hobbs                    60  74  49  67 /  20   0   0   0
Marfa                    56  75  47  67 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     64  79  53  68 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   64  79  53  69 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     63  79  53  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Warning from 8 AM CST /7 AM MST/ to 9 PM CST /8 PM
     MST/ Monday for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
     Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

NM...High Wind Warning from 7 AM to 8 PM MST Monday for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...99