844
FXUS64 KMAF 170538
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1238 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1236 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

- Hot temperatures can be expected through the middle of the week
  and a Heat Advisory is in effect for Tuesday. Many locations
  will reach near or above 100 degrees during this time, with a
  few locations along the Rio Grande potentially reaching up to
  108-113 degrees.

- Near normal temperatures return beginning Thursday and
  continuing through next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday night)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

We don`t have an outflow boundary moving through the area this
afternoon like we did yesterday, so there is nothing keeping
temperatures from climbing well into the 90s with some 100s likely
before peak heating is done. Satellite is showing cumulus
developing over the Davis Mountains and Big Bend which could lead
to a stray shower or two, but nothing of concern.

Models still show an upper trough dampening a high to our west
and stretching the ridge axis along the I-20 corridor up into
North Texas tomorrow. Westerly winds increase and many areas are
expected to increase well above 100 degrees and a Heat Advisory
has been issued for Tuesday afternoon. A few counties off the
caprock in the eastern basin will be a little "cooler", though
still above the century mark, but not quite high enough to warrant
an advisory. Heat risk is the primary messaging with plenty of
hydration and limited outdoor exposure the best way to prevent
heat stress.

Hennig

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

The trough that dampens the ridge moves into the Central Plains on
Wednesday pushing a weak cold front into the area. The current
forecast has temperatures decreasing slightly, especially behind
the front though temps ahead of the front may not drop much so
the location of this boundary will be important for the high
forecast. In addition, differential heating across the boundary
and moisture pooling south of the front could allow for isolated
storms to form near the Stockton Plateau.

High pressure builds in the wake of the trough over New Mexico but
quickly shifts to the east over the Mississippi River Valley by
the weekend. Southeasterly flow on the western periphery of the
high opens up flow from off the gulf advecting in temperatures
much closer to normal for the weekend and possibly even slightly
below normal. That would be a welcome relief. Also, while the
extended forecast is mostly dry, just beyond our forecast time
frame models are showing better rain chances for early next week.
Any rain would be helpful.

Hennig

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

VFR conditions continue at all terminals. LLJ winds hold on into
the morning with gusts reaching to 20-25 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring              103  75  99  73 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                106  72  99  72 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                  104  77 104  75 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton           106  75 101  72 /  20  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           99  70  92  69 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                   105  66  96  68 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    98  66  96  65 /  10   0  10  10
Midland Intl Airport    106  76 101  73 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                  105  75 100  73 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                    108  72 101  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 9 PM CDT /8 PM
     MDT/ this evening for Andrews-Central Brewster-Chinati
     Mountains-Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis
     Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Ector-Gaines-
     Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware
     Mountains-Loving-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Martin-
     Midland-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves County Plains-Terrell-
     Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

NM...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Tuesday for Central Lea-
     Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-
     Northern Lea-Southern Lea.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...93