


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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865 FXUS64 KMAF 181824 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 124 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 121 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 - Mostly dry conditions with up and down temperatures for the rest of this weekend through the extended. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Sunday night) Issued at 121 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 Not much to write about in the short term. WV imagery this afternoon shows the trough has cleared West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, scouring the column from any moisture left over from this morning`s convection and paving the way for a dry cold front overnight. This front is ill-defined, and as such, will arrive gradually overnight, w/out much fanfare except modest CAA. With a dry airmass, clear skies, and no LLJ, radiational cooling will be very efficient, and overnight minimums look to be the coolest of the fall so far, even if still 1-2 F above normal. Sunday, although surface winds veer back to return flow by early afternoon, highs will remain cool, topping out a degree or two above normal. Sunday night, a 40 kt LLJ redevelops, and will combine w/return flow at the surface to add 2-4 F to tonight`s lows. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 121 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 The Long Term forecast remains on track. An expanding ridge to the south and gusty southwesterly/westerly winds help temperatures rebound across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico Monday. Highs are forecast to reach into the upper 80s and low-to-mid 90s for most locations. This warm-up is short-lived, however, as a passing shortwave trough to the north dampens the ridge and sends a cold front into our area Tuesday morning. As a result, highs Tuesday drop back into the 70s for much of the area, with 80s farther south. Temperatures steadily warm Wednesday and Thursday as breezy southerly/southeasterly winds redevelop. By Thursday afternoon and overnight, yet another upper-level trough nears the area, sending a front down and cooling temperatures again Friday. Rain chances still look to be near-zero through much of the extended. However, the aforementioned southerly/southeasterly winds Wednesday and Thursday could bring up enough moisture to allow for some "better" shower/thunderstorm chances Thursday evening ahead of the trough. That being said, have left PoPs at around 10% (not quite mentionable) for the northeastern Permian Basin for now, and will continue to monitor trends in subsequent forecast packages. Sprang && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1142 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 VFR/CAVU conditions will prevail next 24 hours. A weak cold front will ease into the area overnight, but quickly veer to return flow Sunday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 50 78 58 92 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 49 78 51 90 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 55 84 55 94 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 52 82 59 95 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 49 73 55 80 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 44 75 51 88 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 44 77 43 86 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 51 78 58 91 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 51 78 58 91 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 49 79 51 92 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM....13 AVIATION...99