987
FXUS64 KMAF 071739
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1239 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1232 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

- Very warm to hot temperatures through late this week.

- A slight cooling trend with some increase in daytime shower/storm
  chances forecast late weekend through early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

A rather pedestrian weather pattern continues, at least in the
short term. WV imagery this afternoon shows the upper ridge
straddling the Kansas/Oklahoma border. Despite its close
proximity, thicknesses are relatively low, and today looks to be
one of the cooler days this forecast, w/highs coming in only ~ 7-9
F above climatology. Convective chances look somewhat tepid, as
well, w/CA Ms suggesting only isolated activity in the Davis
Mountains and along the lower Rio Grande.

Tonight, a 30 kt LLJ is forecast to develop, keeping the boundary
layer well-mixed and retarding radiational cooling, keeping
overnight minimums a good 10-12 F above normal.

Tuesday, the ridge shifts a little northeast, and expands across
the southern CONUS, adding a degree or so to afternoon highs.
Isolated convection will once again be possible in the mountains.

Tuesday night looks like a carbon copy of tonight, with a similar
LLJ redeveloping.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Mid-week through late week undergoes a warming trend as ridging
over the central CONUS and accompanying large scale sinking and
dry motion strengthens. This allows highs to rise from the
95F-100F range, 100F-105F along the Rio Grande and 85F-90F higher
elevations, to 100F-105F, 90F-95F higher elevations, and 105F-110F
for the Big Bend. As a result, heat stress will be increasing,
and whether or not heat advisory criteria is met anywhere,
everyone is encouraged to take proper heat safety precautions
(limit time spent outdoors during the hottest part of the day,
take frequent breaks in the shade if outdoors, drink plenty of
water, and do not leave people or pets unattended in locked
vehicles). Lows however will not warm as much, while PoPs remain
low (less than 25%), higher over the northern parts of the
forecast area farther away from the core of ridging over SW TX. No
major flash flooding or severe weather is indicated at this time.

The late season hot temperatures resembling early August more
than mid September will be short-lived. NBM highs and lows CONUS
wide along with WPC surface analyses indicate a slight cooling
trend late this weekend through early next week in temperatures
rippling down from the Northern Great Plains, courtesy of weak
west-east oriented cold fronts from the Northern through Southern
Great Plains. While magnitude of cooling will be on the order of
more than 20F farther north across the Northern Great Plains where
the ridge will break down and give way to a more zonal mid to
upper air pattern, this cooling will also bump highs down across
the area (but by less as mid to upper ridging holds for longer
over the Southern Great Plains) into the 80F-95F range from the
90F-105F range, and lows from the 65F-75F range into the 60F-70F
range. These series of weak cold fronts may also increase PoPs
into the 25% to 35% range, especially across the SE NM plains
through northern Permian Basin. However, this far out, any further
specific details regarding timing, magnitude, extent, and
potential for any severe weather remain hazy. We will continue to
monitor the upcoming weak cooldown and increased rain chances as
we draw closer to next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1143 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in light return flow,
w/a few high clouds. Forecast soundings develop cu fields this
afternoon and Tuesday, w/bases ~ 4.5-8 kft AGL. Convection is not
anticipated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               74  99  75 100 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 73  98  73  99 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   74  99  75  99 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            72  97  73  97 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           68  89  69  90 /   0  10   0  10
Hobbs                    71  96  72  97 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    61  88  62  90 /   0  10   0  20
Midland Intl Airport     74  97  75  98 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   74  97  75  97 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     74  99  75  99 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...99