880
FXUS64 KMAF 171938
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
238 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 238 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

- Isolated to scattered storms are expected across the higher
  terrain of west Texas this afternoon/early evening. Strong and
  gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall/localized
  flash flooding will be the main threats with the strongest
  storms.

- Above normal temperatures persist throughout this week. Most
  locations will be near or above 100 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday night)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

A broad upper-level ridge continues to extend across much of the
southern CONUS this afternoon. Water vapor imagery and 500 mb
analysis does show a weak inverted trough embedded along the
southern periphery of the ridge axis over far west Texas and
southern portions of New Mexico this afternoon. A plume of deep
layer moisture with associated precipitable water values around
1.3 inches remains in place over western portions of our forecast
area underneath this feature. Weak upslope flow and sufficient
instability (MLCAPE values up to around 1000 J/KG) has aided in
the development of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
over portions of the Van Horn Corridor, Davis Mountains, and
Marfa Plateau within this moist environment along the trough axis
this afternoon. We have increased POPs to 20-40% coverage over
these locations through the remainder of the afternoon. Slow-
moving storms may result in heavy rainfall and an associated
potential for localized flash flooding over these locations this
afternoon. Brief strong/gusty, small hail, and frequent lightning
strikes may also accompany the stronger storms that develop.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms (10-20% coverage) may linger
into the early evening hours before activity diminishes after
sunset.

The weak upper-level trough will progress to the west of our CWA
later this evening. The broad ridge otherwise gradually expands
east across southeast New Mexico and west Texas Tuesday into
Tuesday night. Hot and dry weather conditions can be expected over
the forecast area on Tuesday with afternoon highs mostly reaching
into the upper 90s to around 103 degrees. Lows Tuesday night will
range from the 60s over higher terrain areas to the 70s over the
rest of the region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

The broad upper-level ridge will remain firmly planted over the
Four Corners late this week before expanding across the southern
Rockies and Plains this weekend. This will result in hot and dry
conditions across our forecast area through the extended forecast
period. Highs each day will range near or slightly above the
century mark over much of our forecast area except for readings in
the 90s over higher terrain areas and up to 105-110 degrees along
the Rio Grande. Lows will continue to range in the 70s, except 60s
in the higher terrain.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

VFR conditions prevail. Southeasterly to southerly winds will be
light (generally 8-13 kts), with occasional light gusts. The best
shower and thunderstorm chances will be south and west of any
terminals, so have not added PROB30s for any site.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               73 102  74 102 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 72 100  71 103 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   73 101  74 103 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            72  99  72 101 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           68  92  68  96 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                    70  98  70 100 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    61  92  61  94 /  20   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     73 101  74 102 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   73 100  74 102 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     73 101  73 103 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...13