380
FXUS64 KMAF 171030
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
530 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 529 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

- Rain chances continue today, especially in the Davis Mountains
  (30-60% chance there, 20-40% chances for other locations west
  of the Pecos). Strongest storms may produce gusty winds and
  heavy downpours.

- A warming and drying trend continues into next week.

- Rain chances decrease this weekend into next week. The best
  chances (10-30%) will be in the Davis Mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1258 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

WV imagery this morning shows an upper ridge running from the
eastern half of Texas to Georgia/South Carolina.  To the west, an
upper trough sits off the coast of Baja.

If thicknesses change at all today, they will decrease just a skosh
from yesterday, shaving maybe a degree or so off yesterday`s
temperatures.  Even so, highs will come in just above normal.  The
Baja trough will send shortwaves up through Mexico into the desert
southwest, promoting the faux monsoon, resulting in the best chances
for convection today being along and west of the Pecos.  00Z KMAF
RAOB came in with a PWAT of 1.37", which is in the 80-85th
percentile territory, so a chance of appreciable rainfall remains.

Tonight, convection is forecast to taper off to the northwest during
the evening.  A 35 kt LLJ is forecast to develop.  Mixing and a few
high clouds will retard radiational cooling, yielding overnight lows
~ 2-4 F above normal.

Friday, the Gulf Coast ridge builds west into the area, and the
upward trend in thicknesses resumes.  Afternoon highs should be
fairly similar to yesterday`s.  Convection will be once again
confined to the west of the Pecos, but perhaps a little farther west
due to the encroachment of the ridge.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 1258 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Ridging builds overhead by the weekend. As a result of this,
temperatures climb 2-5 degrees above normal across much of West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico (96 is a normal high this time of
year at MAF, and 73 is the normal low). Many locations will near or
reach the century mark, especially along the Rio Grande (where
some places will approach 105-110 degrees) and in the Trans-
Pecos. Meanwhile, rain chances continue to decrease as subsidence
increases, with only 10-20% chances showing up in the Davis
Mountains and surrounding areas Saturday and Sunday.

At this time, Sunday looks to be the hottest day overall. By Monday,
ensembles indicate the ridge begins to shift a bit farther to the
east. This means temperatures will decrease by a degree or two for
everyone except our easternmost counties. By the middle of the week,
highs everywhere end up only a degree or two above normal. Rain
chances will also increase a bit again in the higher terrain as the
ridge shifts eastward (10-30% chances). Nevertheless, after a fairly
mild start to July it looks like more typical summer heat will be
sticking around, at least for the foreseeable future.

Sprang

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 529 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in light return flow.
Forecast soundings develop a widespread cu field by late morning,
w/bases ~ 4.5-6 kft AGL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               97  70  96  70 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 96  72  95  71 /  20  20  10   0
Dryden                   97  71  97  72 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            97  71  97  72 /  20   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           88  69  88  69 /  30  20  30  10
Hobbs                    94  69  94  68 /  10  20   0   0
Marfa                    88  64  89  62 /  60  20  20   0
Midland Intl Airport     96  72  96  71 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   95  71  95  71 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     97  72  97  71 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...