009
FXUS64 KMAF 162335
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
635 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 631 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

- Isolated to scattered storms expected this evening over western
  portions of the region. Some storms may produce strong winds,
  frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall leading to localized
  flash flooding.

- An isolated storm or two is possible over the higher terrain
  Monday afternoon.

- Above normal temperatures persist through next week. Some
  locations will be near or above 100 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

For those who prefer cooler weather, today is your day.  WV imagery
shows an inverted trough moving west through the Big Bend Area,
infringing upon a broad, upper ridge centered over northeast Texas
and spanning most of the southern CONUS.  Besides producing mainly a
shower or two in the Big Bend, the trough has locally lowered
thicknesses over the region.  This will combine with the ridge
offset to the northeast to yield afternoon highs averaging only
around 5 F above climatology.  there will be a chance of convection
mainly over the Marfa Plateau/Davis Mountains, perhaps enhanced by
the trough as it moves west through the area.

This activity should dissipate early this evening.  With a
relatively light LLJ and decreased cloud cover, overnight minimums
should be similar to this morning`s, if not a degree or so cooler,
around 5 F above normal.

Monday, with the trough forecast to have moved west into Chihuahua,
thicknesses begin increasing again, adding a degree or so to this
afternoon`s highs.  Convective chances look lower and farther west
than this afternoon.

Monday night, the LLJ looks even wimpier, and with little cloud
cover, this could be the coolest night this forecast, maybe a degree
or so cooler than tonight.  Thus, the extended can only be
warmer/drier.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

The forecast remains om track for above normal temperatures to
continue next week as the upper-level ridge remains dominant over
the region. Afternoon highs in the mid 90s to low 100s can be
expected each day this work week for most, with the hottest spots
ranging from 105 to near 110 along the Rio Grande. We cannot rule
out an isolated storm or two over the mountains each afternoon due
to upslope flow and diurnal heating. Otherwise, sinking motion under
the ridge keeps keeps most dry through the extended.

Greening

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

VFR continues for all sites. Winds between 10-15kts sustained with
gusts to around 20kts decreasing after sunset.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               72 101  72 101 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 71  98  72  99 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   74 100  73  99 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            72  97  71  97 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           67  88  68  90 /   0  10   0   0
Hobbs                    69  97  69  98 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    60  89  61  91 /  10  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     72  98  72  98 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   72  98  72  98 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     73  99  72  99 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...93