758
FXUS64 KMAF 281140
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
640 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 629 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

- Very warm (90s F lowlands, 80s F higher elevations) highs today
  with isolated storms (30% chance) from 12 pm through sunset.

- Heavy rain in scattered showers/storms begins Monday night
  lasting through Wednesday morning. A Flood Watch is in effect
  for the period.

- Strong southwest winds of at least 35 mph develop over the
  Guadalupes by Tuesday, with strong winds likely each day through
  the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 132 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

One last day of very warm (90s F lowlands, mid to upper 80s F
higher elevations) and relatively dry weather (rain chances below
30% until later this evening) is forecast for today. Mid to upper
ridging over west/southwest TX will provide large scale sinking
and drying motion that limits rain chances and allows for ample
diurnal heating for late September. A few scattered showers/storms
over the eastern Permian Basin and heated elevated terrain is not
out of the question from noon through sunset, but amidst a well-
mixed boundary layer south/southeast winds 15 to 25 mph, nothing
more than scattered low-level cumulus is likely for most places
regarding extent of convection. Increased cloud cover and rain
chances are expected by evening through early tonight, with PoPs
rising to the low to medium (25% to 45%) range from the Guadalupes
through SE NM plains. While exact timing and coverage is
uncertain, multiple rounds of scattered showers/storms are likely
overnight, with showers/storms moving east into the Permian Basin
and Stockton Plateau by early Tuesday morning. A Flood Watch is in
effect for Culberson County and SE NM plains beginning Monday
evening and continuing through Wednesday morning. With widespread
clouds present overnight limiting overnight cooling, lows only
fall into the mid 60s to lower to mid 70s F range.

Winds remain elevated in the 15 to 25 mph range Tuesday morning
as the mid to upper storm system providing lift and moisture for
scattered showers/storms also spreads strong southwesterly winds
over the area. Between scattered showers/storms continuing through
the day, breaks in clouds and accompanying daytime heating will
allow for boundary layer mixing and winds to gust to 25 to 35 mph
by afternoon, with high wind conditions possible for the
Guadalupes. At this time, no Wind Advisories or High Wind Watch
products are anticipated due to uncertainty in duration of ambient
higher winds. We will leave the decision to later shifts on
whether to issue any products. Medium to high (45% to 60%) rain
chances will persist for much of the area north of the Rio Grande
basin, with highest chances of heaviest rainfall over the SE NM
plains into Permian Basin. Forecast and ensemble guidance
indicates at least 0.25" to 0.50" (35% to 55% chance) and isolated
regions over the Guadalupes and SE NM plains up to 1" (less than
30% chance) by Tuesday evening. Despite southerly winds persisting
Tuesday, widespread cloud cover and evaporative cooling from
scattered showers/storms will largely keep high temperatures in
the 80s F to lower 90s F, 70s F higher elevations. Lows then again
fall into the 60s to 70s F range Tuesday night. Continued strong
south/southwest winds aloft accompany the base of the mid to
upper storm system still to the east of the area, with gusts up
to 40 mph possible for the Guadalupes Tuesday night through
Wednesday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 132 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Rain chances above medium chance (35% to 45%) taper off from west
to east by Wednesday afternoon with drier weather thereafter and
wetting rains of at least 1" to 2" for locations for highest
rainfall totals (medium confidence), but an extended period of
strong winds is expected to persist through the end of the week.
This will be courtesy of the mid to upper storm system lingering
over the TX PH and CO Front Range through Thursday before losing
strength Friday, continuously imparting strong west/southwest
winds in the mid to upper troposphere that mix down to the
surface. Strongest winds up to High Wind Watch criteria are
currently indicated over the Guadalupes and Delaware Mountains,
with gusts above 25 mph elsewhere. A similar story Thursday but
with lighter winds is expected as the mid to upper storm system
begins to weaken. Each day, afternoon showers/storms also remain
possible from heating of elevated terrain. This will stay true
even as highs in the 80s F, mid 70s F higher elevations, and 90s F
Rio Grande basin and Terrell County Wednesday decrease into the
lower to mid 80s F, upper 60s to mid 70s F higher elevations for
Thursday as a drier, cooler, and more stable air mass attempts to
move in behind the storm system. Lows Wednesday night currently
show a more refreshing air mass characterized by lows falling
below 65F for most of the area, and then below 60 F for most of
the area by Thursday night. While winds stay gusty, winds shifting
to west/northwest and then northerly by Thursday will allow for
the aforementioned cooler and more stable air to finally move into
the area.

Northerly/northeasterly winds at the end of the week then prevent
highs from rising above the mid 80s F areawide through early
weekend, largely settling in the 60s and 70s F, with lows below
60F for all but the Rio Grande basin and Terrell County.
Afternoon/evening showers/storms will still be possible each
afternoon/evening across higher elevations (especially Lower Trans
Pecos), but chances should remain low (less than 35%). A warming
trend late weekend through early next week is then expected to set
in as winds return to more east/southeasterly and mid to upper
ridging redevelops over the Desert SW into west Texas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

VFR conditions and generally southeasterly winds will prevail
through at least the next 12 hours at all terminals. Increase in
cloud cover and lower ceilings are expected after 00Z. Confidence
remains low in MVFR CIGs, along with -SHRA across most terminals
overnight. A low-level jet is also expected to develop across
portions of west Texas during the evening bringing breezy
southerly to southeasterly winds at MAF and FST sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               95  73  91  71 /  10  10  20  80
Carlsbad                 91  68  85  64 /   0  30  80  80
Dryden                   96  75  93  74 /   0   0  10  50
Fort Stockton            95  72  91  70 /   0  10  40  70
Guadalupe Pass           82  63  76  59 /  10  50  80  80
Hobbs                    92  67  85  64 /   0  30  70  90
Marfa                    87  64  84  61 /  10  10  40  70
Midland Intl Airport     94  72  88  71 /   0  10  30  80
Odessa                   94  73  88  71 /   0  10  40  90
Wink                     96  72  92  70 /   0  10  60  90

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch from this evening through Wednesday morning for
     Eastern Culberson-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
     Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

NM...Flood Watch from this evening through late Tuesday night for
     Central Lea-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy
     County-Northern Lea-Southern Lea.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...11