351
FXUS64 KMAF 170945
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
345 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 345 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

- Above normal temperatures continue through Tuesday with breezy
  winds developing this afternoon.

- An upper-level storm system brings increasing rain chances and
  much cooler temperatures by the middle of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 345 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

A dry westerly to southwesterly flow pattern aloft will prevail
across west Texas and southeast New Mexico through Monday afternoon
between weak ridging to our east and an upper-level trough lifting
from the Great Basin to the central/northern Plains. A surface
trough will extend from the eastern Texas panhandle to the Big Bend
region on Monday afternoon with associated low level thermal ridging
resulting in another day of much above normal temperatures over the
area. Temperatures will be slightly cooler than the past few days
over most places with readings forecast to range in the mid 70s to
mid 80s over most of the region (except 60s in the mountains).
Breezy W-SW winds will develop over the southeast New Mexico Plains,
the Permian Basin and the Guadalupe/Davis Mountains late Monday
morning into Monday afternoon. Wind speeds over the Guadalupe Mtns
still look to fall just short of high wind criteria, but could range
up to 30-40 mph with a few gusts up to around 50 mph.

Dry southwesterly flow aloft continues into Tuesday ahead of a
deepening low pressure system over southern California. Surface
troughing continues into the day Tuesday, so another warm day is on
tap though wind speeds look to be much lower. Lows Monday night are
forecast to range in the 40s and 50s with highs Tuesday afternoon
once again topping out in the mid 70s to mid 80s over the region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 345 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Tuesday night, a potent upper trough is forecast to be digging down
the coast of SoCal, putting West Texas and Southeast New Mexico
under progressive southwest flow aloft.  Ahead of this, leeside
troughing on the Front Range will induce appreciable return flow,
advecting rich Gulf moisture up the Pecos River and Rio Grande
Valleys.  Both the NAM and GFS are in agreement in sharpening up a
dryline mid-CWA by 06Z Wednesday, after which convection will be
possible in the warm sector.  Although following a downward trend in
thicknesses, Wednesday looks to be the warmest day in the extended,
with highs coming in ~ 10 F above climatology.

By 00Z Thursday, the upper trough, centered over SoCal/Baja, will
begin to go negative.  Convection is forecast to develop ahead of
this, into our higher terrain out west Wednesday afternoon.  This
will fill in w/convection in the east after 00Z Thursday.  PWATs
continue to inch up, w/NAM buffer soundings now pumping PWATs at
KMAF to 1.2" Wednesday evening.  The record is 1.12", and NAEFS
ensembles increase PWATs to over 3 std devs in north central Texas.
With an luck, we may measure before this is over.  Unfortunately,
models are still portraying deep-layer shear of 50-60 kts rounding
the base of the trough Wednesday night and Thursday, coupled w/mid-
lvl lapse rates of around 7 C/km.  Given this, w/the trough going
negative, a few storms could get spicy Wednesday night/Thursday,
mainly in the east.

Thursday, the trough ejects northeast through West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico.  High winds will be possible
Guadalupes/Delawares Thursday afternoon/night.  Thursday night,
convection will taper off to the northeast as the trough exits the
region, followed by a Pac Front that will continua the cooling
trend.  Latest models put the nadir on temps around Saturday
afternoon, when highs come in at or a degree above normal.

Meanwhile, a secondary trough will be digging east along the
US/Mexico border, arriving late Sunday afternoon.  This could kick
off a few showers.  Highs Sunday afternoon should be about the same
or a skosh warmer than Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 345 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, w/a few high clouds.
Gusty west winds are expected northern terminals this afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 345 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

20-ft winds will increase for a few hours this afternoon in the
Guadalupes, resulting in a small area of 3-4 RFTI, mainly lee
slopes in Eddy County. Forecast ERCs there are below the 50th
percentile. Because the area is small, including temporally, and
min RH is 25% or higher, we`ve decided to forgo a RFD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               82  52  80  58 /   0   0   0  20
Carlsbad                 76  48  79  51 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                   87  56  84  61 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton            84  52  82  56 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass           66  48  68  52 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                    76  47  77  52 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                    75  42  76  44 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     80  52  79  59 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                   79  53  79  59 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                     79  49  79  54 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...99