316
FXUS64 KMAF 171108
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
608 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 606 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

- Hot temperatures can be expected through the middle of the week
  and a Heat Advisory is in effect for this afternoon. Many
  locations will reach near or above 100 degrees during this time,
  with a few locations along the Rio Grande potentially reaching
  up to 108-113 degrees.

- Near normal temperatures return beginning Thursday and
  continuing through next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 404 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

The short term forecast remains on track with some of the hottest
temperatures of the year expected for this afternoon. Most locations
will reach into the 100s with only the higher terrain staying in the
upper 90s. The hottest spots will be the Pecos River Valley and the
low desert of the Big Bend. Have kept the inherited Heat Advisory in
place. Temperatures fall into the 70s tonight as a strong low level
jet keeps warm, moist air over the region. Heading into Wednesday, a
front begins to move through the area and temperatures across
southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin fall several degrees
compared to today. Highs end up in the 90s to low 100s with the
hottest portions of the CWA south of the Davis Mountains. Further
heat products will be needed for Presidio and Brewster counties. The
short term remains dry with low(<10%) rain chances.

-Stickney

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 404 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

With a weakened ridge and northeast to easterly flow across the
region. Temperatures gradually fall closer to normal through the end
of the week and into this weekend. Morning lows also fall towards
normal with most in the upper 60s to low 70s. Long range guidance
shows flow returning back to the southeast and keeps low level
moisture in the area. Rain chances increase, particularly over the
western half of the CWA as weak short wave troughs move through the
area. Despite somewhat high(30-40%) rain chances, rain amounts
remain to be seen and the forecast will change.

-Stickney

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 606 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

VFR remains for the TAF period. Gusts between 20-25 kts will pick
up during the day and continue into tonight and hold out of the
south to southeast. A front arrives just after the end of the
current TAF period and will shift winds to the north.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring              103  74  98  73 /   0  10   0  10
Carlsbad                107  72  97  72 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                  103  76 103  75 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton           106  76 101  73 /  10  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           98  70  91  69 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                   104  68  94  68 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    98  66  95  65 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport    105  75 100  74 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                  104  75  99  73 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                    108  71  99  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 9 PM CDT /8 PM
     MDT/ this evening for Andrews-Central Brewster-Chinati
     Mountains-Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis
     Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Ector-Gaines-
     Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware
     Mountains-Loving-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Martin-
     Midland-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves County Plains-Terrell-
     Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

NM...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this evening
     for Central Lea-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of
     Eddy County-Northern Lea-Southern Lea.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...93