282
FXUS64 KMAF 171928
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
Issued by National Weather Service San Angelo TX
128 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

...New LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1227 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

- Above normal temperatures continue through Tuesday with breezy
  winds developing this afternoon.

- An upper-level storm system brings increasing rain chances and
  much cooler temperatures by the middle of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1205 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Windy/Breezy southwest to west winds this afternoon decouple
early this evening, as surface low in SE Colorado/W Kansas moves
east, and lee trough over West Texas weakens.

Dry southwest flow aloft continues Tuesday, even as a strong
upper low moves into Southern California. Lee trough will not be
as strong Tuesday, with lighter southwest winds. It will still be
warm, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s, except cooler in
higher elevations. Tuesday night, low level moisture returns from
the southeast, with a possibly a shower late night, mainly in the
Permian Basin.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1227 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Low level moisture continues to increase Wednesday as the upper
low in Southern California moves into Arizona, and a negatively
tilted upper trough passes through Wednesday night into Thursday.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms developing in the Permian
Basin and TransPecos Wednesday, expand across the Midland county
warning area Wednesday night and Thursday, with approach of the
upper low. Could possibly see a strong or isolated severe storm
Wednesday night, mainly in eastern Permian Basin and Transpecos
and with increasing shear and MUCAPEs in the 1000-1500 J/KG range.
However, anticipating activity to remain below severe levels.

High winds possible Thursday afternoon into Thursday night in the
Guadalupe mountains/Delwares as the upper trough move through.
Rain chances ending Thursday night. An isolated shower possible
Sunday night into Monday as another upper low passes through N.
New Mexico/Southern Colorado.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1135 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

VFR conditions will continue through the next 24 hours, with some
patchy high clouds. Gusty west winds will occur this afternoon at
the northern terminals (KMAF, KHOB and KCNM). For this evening and
tonight, expect decreased west-southwest winds of 5-10 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               52  80  58  78 /   0   0  20  40
Carlsbad                 48  79  51  76 /   0   0  10  10
Dryden                   56  84  61  78 /   0   0  10  30
Fort Stockton            52  82  56  78 /   0   0  10  20
Guadalupe Pass           48  68  52  66 /   0   0  10  20
Hobbs                    47  77  52  75 /   0   0  10  10
Marfa                    42  76  44  73 /   0   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport     52  79  59  76 /   0   0  10  30
Odessa                   53  79  59  76 /   0   0  10  30
Wink                     49  79  54  76 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...99