064
FXUS64 KMAF 161803
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
103 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1254 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

- Rain chances continue this afternoon through early next week.
  The best chances (50-70%) of showers/storms remain in the Davis
  Mountains Thursday afternoon. Strongest storms may produce
  gusty winds and heavy downpours.

- Rain chances (10-30%) decrease this weekend and into early next
  week, with highest chances remaining in the Davis Mountains.

- A gradual warming and drying trend continues into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday night)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Rain chances (30-60%) remain mostly confined to the Davis Mountains
and Big Bend this afternoon owing to southeasterly upslope
flow/terrain influences, strong surface heating, and a surface
trough extending through eastern New Mexico/west Texas. Rain chances
(20-70%) continue Thursday afternoon for the same areas, but extend
northward into the Guadalupe Mountains and surrounding areas. The
greatest chances (50-70%) of showers and storms remain over the
Davis Mountains. Storms that develop will pulse up and down given
the weak flow aloft and lack of shear. PWATS near 1.5 could induce
precipitation loading and heavy downpours, thus allowing for strong
downdrafts with some of these storms. Afternoon highs look very
similar today and tomorrow with temperatures in the mid to upper 90s
(80s in higher terrain areas). However, portions of the Trans Pecos
could reach the century mark this afternoon. Some spots along the
Rio Grande will top out near 100 degrees both days. Overnight lows
bottom out in the low to mid 70s for most.

Greening

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

A gradual warming trend commences as mid-level ridging builds into
the area from the southeastern CONUS. The hottest part of the Long
Term period looks to be this weekend and into early next week where
temperatures could top out near 100 degrees at many locations
(portions of the Permian Basin, Trans Pecos, and along the Rio
Grande). Some spots in the Rio Grande could possibly see
temperatures soar near 110 degrees. Rain chances are forecast to
mainly be low (10-30%) and mostly confined to higher terrain as
large scale subsidence (sinking motion) from the aforementioned
ridge limits convective coverage across the region. Though, Friday
has the highest PoPs (30-50%) out west near Van Horn as the surface
trough moves back to the west.

Greening

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

VFR conditions prevail at all terminals. Southeasterly winds around
10kts continues throughout this TAF period with occasional gusts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               72  95  70  95 /   0  10   0   0
Carlsbad                 73  95  72  92 /   0  20  30  30
Dryden                   74  96  72  96 /   0  10   0   0
Fort Stockton            74  96  71  95 /   0  30  10  10
Guadalupe Pass           69  87  68  86 /  10  30  30  50
Hobbs                    71  93  69  92 /   0  20  20  10
Marfa                    66  87  65  87 /  10  70  20  40
Midland Intl Airport     74  95  71  94 /   0  10  10  10
Odessa                   73  94  71  93 /   0  10  10  10
Wink                     74  96  72  95 /   0  20  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...55