112
FXUS64 KMAF 292318
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
618 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 614 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

- Any isolated storms that develop later this afternoon and
  evening will carry a risk of damaging winds, large hail, and
  brief heavy rainfall.

- Warmer conditions with isolated to scattered showers/storms
  expected through early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday night)
Issued at 106 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

WV imagery this afternoon shows the upper trough centered over
southern Nevada, putting West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under
southwest flow aloft.  A mid-lvl speed max rounding the base of the
trough will bring 40-50 kts of deep layer shear into the area this
afternoon, suggesting severe convection will be possible.  However,
this remains inconclusive due to cloud cover, associated CIN, and
rather tepid mid-lvl lapse rates.

Tonight, a 40 kt LLJ is forecast to develop, keeping the boundary
layer mixed.  Combined w/plenty of cloud cover, overnight lows
should come in ~ 6-8 F above climatology.

Saturday, surface winds are forecast to veer to SW, adding a
downslope warming component to assist increasing thicknesses and
adding a couple of degrees to today`s highs, bringing them to 7-9 F
above normal.  These winds will also mix the dryline east, confining
convective chances mainly to the lower Trans Pecos.

Saturday night, the LLJ isn`t forecast to be quite as strong as
tonight.  This, along w/less cloud cover, should shave 3-4 F off of
overnight lows.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 106 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

Sunday, a weak upper ridge looks to be centered just off to our
east, with an upper trough overlaying the western US. This leaves
our region under southwesterly flow aloft, wherein which several
disturbances are expected to pass overhead Sunday and Monday.
Meanwhile, surface low pressure over the Central Plains draws
moist and breezy, south/southeasterly winds over the eastern
portions of our area both afternoons. By Sunday afternoon, a
dryline is progged to extend NE-SW across the Permian Basin, then
south into the Big Bend. Sufficient lift ahead of the dryline and
associated with a passing upper disturbance brings low to medium
(10-60%) rain chances to the Permian Basin, the Upper and Lower
Tans Pecos, and the higher terrain in west Texas. Best odds
(40-60%) will be in/near the Davis Mountains. Rain chances taper
down Sunday evening, then increase to 10-30% nearly areawide
Monday afternoon, as the dryline waffles back west and another
disturbance progresses overhead. Rain chances persist Tuesday
onward due to a continued flow of disturbances aloft and surface
moisture out of the southeast. Our best shot at rainfall across
the area will be during the latter half of the week, as an upper
low approaches.

Despite rain chances, temperatures Sunday and Monday are forecast
to top out above normal. Sunday will be the hottest of the two
days, as afternoon highs reach the upper 90s and triple digits
(mainly near and along the river valleys). Monday`s highs shall
warm to just a few degrees shy of Sunday`s. Temperatures trend
cooler Tuesday through the end of the week given increased cloud
coverage and rain chances. By midweek, many locations currently
look to see highs in the 80s. Overnight lows are generally
expected to cool into the 60s each night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

VFR prevails at all terminals through tonight. IsoT remains
possible mainly for MAF/FST, but confidence remains low of impact
from any convection at this time. Winds settle around or below
10kts overnight with directions mainly out of the south to
southwest.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               71  96  69  99 /  10   0   0  10
Carlsbad                 68  96  61 101 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   73  97  71  98 /  10  20   0  10
Fort Stockton            70  97  67  99 /  10  10   0  40
Guadalupe Pass           66  85  63  90 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    65  95  61  98 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                    59  91  56  93 /   0   0   0  50
Midland Intl Airport     70  95  68  97 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                   70  95  68  97 /   0   0   0  20
Wink                     69  97  66 100 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...93