977
FXUS64 KMAF 311759
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1259 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1257 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

- Scattered showers this afternoon/evening over parts of the
  western higher terrain, then patchy mist/fog late evening for
  plains and valleys on Halloween night.

- A very low but nonzero chance of severe weather across the SE NM plains
  Sunday afternoon/evening, with damaging winds the main threat.

- Increasing southerly winds shifting to westerly Monday, with
  strong westerly winds (40-50 mph, gusts 65 mph) for
  Guadalupes/Delawares.

- Mild (60s and 70s F highs, 40s and 50s F lows) with low rain
  chances Tuesday into the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Mid to upper ridging builds this weekend ahead of another mid to
upper disturbance. This will allow for drier weather today and
most of tomorrow. Following low clouds lifting from southwest to
northeast from mid-morning through mid afternoon today, highs rise
into the mid 60s to mid 70s F for most of the area as thinning
cloud cover allows for more daytime heating. High-res CAMs
indicate more shower activity over the Guadalupes, Davis` and
Marfa Plateau into Lower Trans Pecos than in previous runs despite
very low (less than 15%) rain chances, so showery weather may
stick around and complicate any last minute outdoor preparations
for Halloween festivities. Light and variable winds shift back to
more consistently south/southeast by evening in response to a
approaching system developing into the Intermountain West. Winds
may be more "brisk" (5 mph or greater) than this morning and keep
lows a few degrees warmer in the mid 50s to mid 60s F (as opposed
to mid 50s to lower 60s F like this morning) as a result. However,
clearer skies overhead and still recently saturated soils from
widespread wetting rains on Thursday and Friday will again allow
patchy mist/fog to develop over plains and valleys by evening and
continuing overnight. This will provide a spooky atmospheric
backdrop by late Halloween night for some trick or treaters!

A spike in mid to upper ridging Sunday allows for more sinking
motion over the area. Therefore, we can expect highs to warm back
into the mid 70s to 80s F across the area. However, shower/storm
chances will be increasing over the SE NM plains by afternoon.
This will be in association with the approaching mid to upper
disturbance spreading increased lift and focusing of moisture
aloft. This will be favorable for isolated storm development
consolidating over time, and some high-res CAMs depict a broken
tail end line of storms moving east/northeast over the SE NM
plains by late afternoon/early evening. If that was not enough,
model forecast soundings depict high (50 knots or greater)
southwest winds aloft over the SE NM plains from the mid through
upper troposphere by late afternoon, and shear increasing above 35
knots while low-level helicity increases above 80 m2/s2. Should
storms hold together, both parameters will be favorable for
damaging winds and line-embedded tornadoes. SPC has most of SE NM
in a MRGL risk Sunday, even as greatest forcing bypasses the SE NM
plains to the north and rain chances stay very low (less than
20%). Therefore, we will watch for a brief window for severe
weather across the northernmost SE NM plains tomorrow
afternoon/evening, even though storms are not guaranteed.
Increasing southerly winds 15 mph to 25 mph with higher gusts keep
lows warmer than previous nights - in the upper 50s to 60s F
Sunday night. Increased winds Sunday night set the stage for
continued windy weather early week. Read the Long Term Discussion
for more details.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

A near surface Pacific cold front accompanies the mid to upper
disturbance as it develops into the Southern Great Plains Monday.
Southerly winds shift to westerly behind the front and increase
above 40 to 50 mph over the Guadalupes/Delawares, with gusts up to
65 mph indicated in forecast grids. These winds persist through
much of Monday afternoon/evening. The duration of strong winds has
prompted a High Wind Watch for the Guadalupes/Delawares and
surrounding passes during that time frame. Not out of the question
that some patchy blowing dust during strong winds may occur as
well near the Guadalupes/Delawares and surrounding foothills,
despite recent rains. Otherwise, 25 to 35 mph winds can also be
expected for the plains/lowlands to the east behind the Pacific
cold front, with low (25% to 35%) rain chances and warmer
temperatures in the 70s and 80s F ahead of the cold front for the
eastern Permian Basin into Terrell County. Due to the more
progressive and zonal upper air pattern that follows the
disturbance, the modified Pacific air will only result in highs
dropping down into the 60s to lower 70s F, lows mid 40s to mid 50s
F behind the front.

With the front clearing the area Tuesday and winds shifting to
northwesterly/northerly and decreasing, continued CAA brings highs
back down to the 60s to 70s F range in the mild, terrain modified
Pacific airmass. However, with a progressive upper air pattern
keeping alternating ridging and troughing aloft through end of the
week, highs and lows continue to fluctuate within the 60s to 70s
F and mid 40s to mid 50s F range each day and night, respectively.
After the relatively humid and rainy pattern, rain chances will
remain near zero for the rest of the week. The combination of the
mild air, greater diurnal variation, and longer nights will be in
sync with seasonal norms for early November.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1107 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Cigs will be highly variable for the first 12 hours of the
forecast period as skies attempt to scatter out and winds veer.
However, mid/high cloud will complicate the process. From around
06Z Sunday on, cigs/vsbys will crater to LIFR at times all
terminals, w/little improvement by the end of the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               60  76  65  82 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 57  78  61  76 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   63  76  64  82 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            60  82  64  83 /  10   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass           56  72  57  66 /   0   0  10   0
Hobbs                    55  74  61  75 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    54  75  57  76 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     60  75  65  80 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   61  75  65  79 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     59  79  63  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware
     Mountains.

NM...High Wind Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...99