267
FXUS64 KMAF 151927
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
127 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 127 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

- Near record highs and dry conditions are expected through
  Sunday.

- A weak front Monday yields gusty winds, along with slightly
  cooler temperatures early next week.

- An upper-level system brings more seasonable temperatures and
  increasing rain chances by the middle of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 127 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Above normal temperatures continue through the remainder of the
weekend as upper-level ridging dominates overhead. At the moment, a
weak cold front is dropping down across the Plains and should make
it into the northern portions of our region this evening before
becoming difuse Sunday morning. This does little to our
temperatures aside from knock them back a few degrees compared to
the last several days. Tonight, lows cool into the 50s for most.
Sunday, highs top out in the 70s over the higher terrain, with 80s
everywhere else. We are expecting another day of near record
highs at Midland International Air and Space Port. The forecast
calls for a high of 83 degrees and the current record for Sunday
is 86, set in 1963. The slightly cooler temperatures can also be
attributed to changes taking shape in our upper-level pattern.
Through the course of the day Sunday, the upper-ridge begins to
shift north and eastward as a shortwave trough translates across
SoCal toward the northern Plains. More details on this feature`s
impacts on our area in the long term discussion.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 127 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

The shortwave trough mentioned above sends a Pac front sweeping
through our area Monday. This leads to breezy, westerly and
southwesterly winds and highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s. The
strongest winds can be found over the Guadalupes Monday afternoon,
though these look to remain below High Wind criteria at the
moment. Highs in the 70s hang around Tuesday and Wednesday while
another trough digs into the southwestern US. As this system
approaches our region Wednesday, it generates a lee trough that
looks to draw up Gulf moisture into the Great Plains. This set up
brings rain chances Wednesday through Thursday evenings, mainly
over the eastern portions of our region, as lift increases ahead
of the upper trough and a sharpening dryline. As of now, details
on timing, location, and whether or not severe weather will be in
the mix are unknown. However, these will definitely require
monitoring as this system materializes. Rain chances aside, lower
heights associated with the trough will help usher in more
seasonable temperatures during the latter part of next week. Highs
are forecast to primarily range within the 60s and lows in the
40s Thursday and Friday.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1119 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

VFR conditions and light winds continue the next 24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               52  81  54  82 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 51  83  53  77 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   56  90  55  86 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            59  85  56  83 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           53  72  50  66 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    49  81  52  76 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    48  78  43  76 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     55  83  56  81 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   56  83  56  80 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     51  84  52  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...10