784
FXUS64 KMAF 272247
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
547 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 546 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

- Warm temperatures continue through Monday. Isolated to scattered
  storms are expected across the eastern Permian Basin extending
  into the Big Bend this afternoon and early evening.

- Another storm system will impact the region by early to mid-
  week. Heavy rainfall is expected with this system, which will
  elevate the risk for flash flooding.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Temperatures are warming quickly into the 80s this afternoon under
partly cloudy skies. Highs will reach the mid 90s for most locations
east of the Pecos River with cooler conditions out west where heavy
rain fell last week. Increased mid level ridging will suppress
most convection today, but a few storms can`t be ruled out in the
higher terrain south to the Big Bend.

Expect another mild night will lows in the 60s/70s as any storms
dissipate quickly after sunset. Ridging breaks down Monday and
southwesterly flow aloft increases as an upper trough enters the
Desert SW. At the same time, Hurricane Polo will make landfall
Monday afternoon/evening along the Baja coastline. SW flow aloft
will transport Pacific moisture into the region while Gulf of
America moisture remains in place at the surface. Showers and
thunderstorms will increase in coverage across SE NM and far west
Texas, especially by evening. The heaviest rain will remain west of
our area for the time being, but given all the rainfall over SE NM
last week, it won`t take much to cause more flooding. For this
reason, we will begin a Flood Watch Monday afternoon. Additional
details on the upcoming storm system can be found in the long-term
below.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

The Long Term portion of the forecast continues to look active for
west Texas and southeast New Mexico. On Tuesday, an upper-level
trough will be making its way towards the region. Simultaneously,
the remnants of Hurricane Polo are pushed our direction as well. As
this occurs, both lift and moisture increase across the area. In
fact, models indicate PWATs will be pushing daily maximum values,
sitting between 1.5-1.8 inches (up to 2.0 inches) for most
locations. As a result, medium to high (40-80%) rain chances are
forecast across much of the area Tuesday into Wednesday. The highest
chances (60-80%) are still maintained for southeast New Mexico and
the Permian Basin, which will be relatively closer to the best lift.
Given the quality of moisture and how much rain some portions of the
area of seen in the past several days, flash flooding is going to be
the primary concern. This will be especially true for southeast New
Mexico and Culberson County, where the Flood Watch mentioned in the
Short Term discussion will remain in effect through early Wednesday
morning (though this watch may be expanded in future forecast
updates as confidence increases).

The duration of this event is still somewhat questionable. The GFS
has tended to be more progressive with the trough (moving the best
rain chances off to our east by Wednesday afternoon) whereas the
ECMWF has been slower (keeping rain chances in play through Thursday
afternoon). In any case, the overall pattern bears some similarities
to October 21-22nd of 2015, where a trough interacted with tropical
moisture and yielded flash flooding across southeast New Mexico and
much of the Permian Basin. Incidentally, that event also occurred
during an El Nino. Beyond our rain chances, guidance indicates a
front will move across our area during the latter half of the week.
Once again, differences in the exact timing and magnitude of the
front exist within the models. Nevertheless, it looks like by the
end of the week highs in the mid-to-upper 70s and low 80s become
commonplace (versus the mid-to-upper 80s and low 90s forecast for
Tuesday).

Sprang

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 546 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in light/variable flow
Chances of convection are slim, but a fairly widespread, low-based
cu field is anticipated by noon Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               70  95  73  92 /   0  10  10  20
Carlsbad                 63  90  67  85 /   0   0  30  70
Dryden                   74  96  74  94 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton            70  94  72  92 /   0   0  10  30
Guadalupe Pass           64  83  64  77 /   0  10  60  80
Hobbs                    64  91  67  85 /   0   0  40  70
Marfa                    62  86  64  85 /   0  10  20  40
Midland Intl Airport     71  94  72  89 /   0   0  10  30
Odessa                   72  93  73  89 /   0   0  10  40
Wink                     71  96  73  93 /   0   0  20  60

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch from Monday evening through Wednesday morning for
     Eastern Culberson-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
     Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

NM...Flood Watch from Monday evening through late Tuesday night for
     Central Lea-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy
     County-Northern Lea-Southern Lea.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...99