783
FXUS64 KMAF 211140
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
640 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 640 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

- Highs remain above normal today, but finally trend cooler
  Tuesday through the end of the week.

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop along a cold
  front that moves into the area today and Tuesday. A few storms
  will be capable of producing localized strong downburst winds,
  frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall that may lead to
  localized flash flooding.

- A surge of moisture lifting across western portions of the
  region will bring the potential for numerous showers and
  thunderstorms over southeast New Mexico and areas west of the
  Pecos River Tuesday night into Thursday. We will be monitoring
  these locations for an increased potential for heavy rainfall
  and flash flooding.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Weak westerly to northwesterly flow aloft is in place over west
Texas and southeast New Mexico early this morning. Weak impulses
embedded within this flow pattern have resulted in the development
of isolated showers and thunderstorms from central portions of
Lea County NM to the Upper Trans Pecos and western Permian Basin
as of 145 AM CDT. This activity has been very sparse in nature,
but we will keep isolated (10-20%) mention of showers/storms in
the forecast through the remainder of the overnight hours over
these locations. Surface analysis and regional radar imagery also
show a cold front pushing through the Texas panhandle early this
morning, with scattered thunderstorms developing between Lubbock
and Childress along the vicinity of this boundary. Short range and
high resolution model solutions are in good agreement with
bringing the front southward into northern portions of our
forecast area by early this evening before pushing further south
through the southeast New Mexico plains and Trans Pecos region
later this evening. Additional shortwave impulses embedded within
the mid- level flow will aid in the development of scattered
showers and thunderstorms along the boundary this afternoon and
evening and we will keep POPs elevated between 30-50% across the
southeast New Mexico plains, the Permian Basin, and portions of
the Trans Pecos region. Other isolated showers and thunderstorms
(10-20%) may develop over the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains and
portions of the Marfa Plateau and Big Bend. Precipitable water
values will locally increase to > 1.5 inches along the vicinity of
the boundary, so some storms will be capable of producing heavy
rainfall which could lead to isolated instances of flash flooding
this afternoon and evening. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms may once again linger into the overnight hours.
Highs today are forecast to remain very warm with readings in the
lower to mid 90s over most of the region, except mid to upper 80s
in the higher terrain and around or slightly above 100 degrees
along the Rio Grande. Lows tonight trend slightly cooler behind
the front with readings mostly in the 60s. A few places may fall
into the mid to upper 50s over the higher terrain, while areas
along the Rio Grande range in the lower to mid 70s.

The mid to upper-level flow pattern will transition more southerly
to southwesterly across southeast New Mexico and west Texas
Tuesday and Tuesday night as the ridge becomes positioned from
eastern portions of Texas into the central High Plains and as a
trough lifts across the Great Basin. A plume of deep moisture will
be transported northward from Mexico into far west Texas and much
of the state of New Mexico between these features through Tuesday
night. The surface front will meanwhile remain oriented from the
Guadalupe Mountains/southeast New Mexico plains and through the
Trans Pecos region. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
will develop across the southeast New Mexico plains, the Permian
Basin, and into the Upper Trans Pecos and Guadalupe/Davis
Mountains region Tuesday afternoon along the boundary. Convective
coverage may continue to increase over southeast New Mexico and
the adjacent Guadalupe Mountains and the western and northwestern
Permian Basin Tuesday evening into late Tuesday night as deep
layer moisture increases in the S/SW flow aloft. While the signal
for the heaviest rainfall with this surge of moisture currently
looks to be aligned just west and northwest of our CWA, we will
have increasing concerns of potential flash flooding over our
southeast New Mexico and Guadalupe Mountains zones in particular
going into Tuesday night as deeper moisture spreads into these
areas with potential for localized rainfall amounts in excess of
1-2" in a short period of time with the associated rounds of
showers and thunderstorms. While confidence was not quite high
enough to issue a Flood Watch over these zones with this forecast
package, later shifts will continue to assess the need for one
over these locations from Tuesday night into at least Wednesday
evening (see extended discussion below). HIgh temperatures on
Tuesday otherwise trend cooler with readings forecast to trend
back down into the 80s over much of our region, except in the 90s
along the Rio Grande.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

The southerly mid-level flow pattern will persist across much of
our forecast area on Wednesday between ridging to our east and
persistent troughing over and just west of the Baja region. Deep
moisture continue spread northward over our western zones within
this flow pattern will continue to favor a high chance (60-80%) of
showers and thunderstorms and an associated heavy rainfall/flash
flood potential over southeast New Mexico, the Guadalupe and
Davis Mountains, and the adjacent Van Horn Corridor. Other
isolated to scattered showers/storms (20-50%) will develop across
much of the rest of the forecast area Wednesday into Wednesday
night. Medium range models keep a moist southwesterly flow pattern
aloft in place across much of our CWA Thursday and Friday, so a
good chance of showers and thunderstorms will continue, especially
over southeast New Mexico and areas along and west of the Pecos
River through the latter part of the week. Deep moisture will
support a continued heavy rainfall and an associated potential for
flash flooding over our western zones Thursday into Friday.
Temperatures will be closer to seasonal normals (though still
slightly above what is expected for late September) mid to late
week. The flow pattern transitions more zonal by this weekend,
with weak ridging building overhead by Sunday. This should allow
for lower chances of showers and thunderstorms this weekend, while
temperatures also trend warmer back into the upper 80s to lower
90s over much of the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

VFR conditions will remain prevalent through the period. A cold
front will push into southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin
late this afternoon into early this evening. Winds will shift
easterly to northeasterly behind this feature. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop along the
boundary mainly after 20Z. We included PROB30 mention for TSRA
with gusty winds at KMAF and KINK late this afternoon into this
evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               94  67  86  66 /  40  50  50  40
Carlsbad                 94  67  86  63 /   0  30  50  80
Dryden                   95  71  91  71 /   0  20  20  20
Fort Stockton            94  68  88  67 /  10  30  30  20
Guadalupe Pass           86  62  78  59 /   0  20  50  70
Hobbs                    90  63  82  61 /  20  30  50  70
Marfa                    87  60  83  59 /  20  10  30  20
Midland Intl Airport     93  67  86  67 /  30  40  50  40
Odessa                   93  69  86  68 /  30  40  50  50
Wink                     95  69  88  67 /  10  20  40  50

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...21