540
FXUS64 KMAF 240845
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
345 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 345 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

- Heat Advisory remains in effect from noon MDT /1 PM CDT/ to 8 PM
  MDT /9 PM CDT/ Friday this evening for Eddy County, as well as
  the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

- After a slightly cooler weekend, temperatures next week will
  climb into the triple digits most locations each afternoon.
  Additional Heat Advisories are likely, as the effects of heat
  are cumulative, and present an increasing risk of heat-related
  illnesses.

- Rain chances will be slim to none.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

WV imagery this morning shows the upper ridge centered over southern
New Mexico, and still extending coast-to-coast across the southern
CONUS.  This resulted in highs in the triple digits most locations
yesterday afternoon, ~ 7-9 F above climatology.  The 00Z KMAF RAOB
came in with a PWAT of a whopping 1.84", easily beating the daily
record of 1.70" and the 100th percentile of 1.73".  Unfortunately,
this was wasted moisture, as much of the area was capped in an
absence of triggers.  A few cells tried to get going in the Permian
Basin, but to no avail.

Today, the upper ridge is forecast to develop WNW, bisecting Arizona
and New Mexico, shifting the heat over West Texas and Southeast New
Mexico to the northwest, especially the New Mexico Pecos River
Valley.  As such, a Heat Advisory is in effect for Eddy County, as
well as the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains.  Farther south, isolated
afternoon convection is possible over the Presidio Valley/Chinati
Mountains.

Tonight, the ridge begins orienting SW-NE, from eastern Arizona to
eastern Colorado.  Models develop convection in northeastern New
Mexico, and bring it east into the Texas Panhandle/South Plains.
Some of this convection could develop down into Eddy Lea Counties
during the evening. This may be the overall best chance for
rainfall this forecast. Otherwise, a 30 kt LLJ is set to develop,
and will combine with a modest amount of high cloud to retard
radiational cooling, yielding unseasonably warm overnight
minimums ~ 5-7 F above normal.

Saturday, with the ridge centered over Colorado/New Mexico, taking
the focus off of West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, highs most
locations will dip back into the double digits, but just barely. For
those who prefer this cooler weather, don`t get too comfortable, as
this easily looks to be the coolest day this forecast.  Once again,
convection north of the area could dip down into northern Lea
County.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

The extended is fairly straightforward, hot, and dry, with
temperatures most locations climbing into the triple digits each
afternoon, and lows remaining unseasonably warm each night due to
the LLJ.  The upper ridge will park itself more or less just east of
the Four Corners, with minor temperature fluctuations dependent on
where it shifts each day.  At this time, Monday looks to be the
warmest day this forecast, similar to yesterday`s highs.  However,
this is prone to change and the whims of the upper ridge.  "Cooler"
temperatures over the weekend should negate the need for Heat
Advisories after today, but they`ll be back in play Monday through
the extended.  Rain chances will be minimal, and typical for late
July.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

VFR conditions will continue next 24 hours in generally light
return flow. Convective chances are minimal, but a widespread cu
field is expected late morning/early afternoon, w/bases ~ 5-9 kft
AGL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring              102  76  99  75 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                104  76 100  75 /   0  10   0   0
Dryden                   99  76  98  74 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton           100  73  97  73 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           96  70  92  70 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                   103  73  98  72 /   0  20   0   0
Marfa                    96  63  93  64 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport    100  75  97  75 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                  100  75  97  74 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                    103  75  99  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 9 PM
     CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for Guadalupe Mountains Above
     7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

NM...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Friday for Eddy County
     Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...99