862
FXUS64 KMAF 180653
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
153 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 151 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

- Very warm temperatures and very low (<15%) isolated
  shower/storm chances through the rest of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 151 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

IR satellite and radar imagery depicts a much quieter scene than
the previous nights as a broad upper ridge has expanded over the
southern CONUS and any major disturbances focusing moisture and
lift have drifted away from the area. This will continue to be the
case today and tomorrow, with very low (~10% to 15%) chance of
showers/storms (mainly across the western higher terrain) as a
result of accompanying large scale subsidence. Any storms that do
form will be capable of brief heavy rainfall, lightning, small
hail, strong and variable winds, and patchy blowing dust, but
widespread severe weather is not expected. Temperatures warm from
the 95F-100F range, 90F-95F range today into the 100F-105F range
over most of the SE NM plains, Permian Basin, and Reeves County
Plains into Stockton Plateau, 95F-100F range higher elevations
tomorrow. Both today and tomorrow, highs in the 105F-110F range
can be expected for the Big Bend as well. Heat advisory criteria
will not be met anywhere. However, everyone is encouraged to take
proper heat safety precautions (drink plenty of water, do not
leave people or pets in locked vehicles, and take frequent breaks
in the shade if outdoors). Lows stay in the 70F-75F range both
tonight and tomorrow night for most of the area, except for
65F-70F lows over both northern Lea County into northwest Permian
Basin and the western higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 151 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Mid to upper level ridging retains control through the rest of
the week with no major changes to near surface features. As a
result, a very low (<10%) chance of a stray shower/storm with
highs in the 100F-105F range warmer spots, 95F-100F range cooler
spots, and 105F- 110F for the Big Bend can all be expected.
Everyone is encouraged to continue taking heat safety precautions.
Lows may warm slightly into the 75F-80F range for the eastern and
southern portions of the area, while remaining in the 70F-75F
range warmer spots, 60F-70F range coolers spots.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Light southerly to
southeasterly winds are expected through this morning, before winds
increase slightly during the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring              102  75 102  75 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                100  72 102  73 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                  100  75 102  75 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            98  73 100  73 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           90  68  93  70 /  20   0  10   0
Hobbs                    99  70 100  72 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    91  61  94  63 /  10   0  10   0
Midland Intl Airport     99  75 100  75 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   99  75 100  75 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                    100  74 102  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...11