864
FXUS64 KMAF 101945
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
245 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 245 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

- Rain chances begin increasing Saturday night, peak late Sunday
  night, and taper off through Tuesday afternoon. Best chances
  will be over Southeast New Mexico and areas of West Texas to the
  south.

- Warm and dry conditions return for the remainder of the upcoming
  work week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday night)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

An upper-level trough currently sits off the coast of the Pacific
Northwest. Meanwhile, ridging aloft is apparent on water vapor
satellite imagery over west Texas and southeast New Mexico. This
feature will keep temperatures 5-10 degrees above average across the
area both today and Saturday. Highs in the 80s can be expected
areawide today (70s in the higher terrain). Upper 80s and low 90s
are forecast for most locations Saturday, with lows tomorrow morning
in the upper 50s and low 60s. The ridge will also make for a fairly
mundane weather pattern during the Short Term period. Rain chances
are practically nil for today and most of Saturday due to subsidence
from the ridge. However, by Saturday afternoon the aforementioned
trough will be trudging across northwestern parts of the CONUS
towards the Rockies and Northern/Central Plains. Shortwaves rounding
the base of this trough, coupled with a plume of anomalously high
moisture, will result in increasing rain chances in southeast New
Mexico and far southwest Texas Saturday evening and overnight (10-
20%). However, the best chances hold off until the Long Term period.
Otherwise, southerly winds become gustier tomorrow due to a
developing surface low on the leeside of the Rockies in advance of
the trough.

Sprang

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Sunday, the upper ridge is forecast to extend from central Mexico
northeast into the Great Lakes Region, courtesy of a large trough
pushing through the Rockies into the central CONUS.  This will put
West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under southwest flow aloft.
Current satellite already shows PWATs have increased to 170% of
normal as this flow advects tropical moisture from TS Priscilla into
the area, and NAEFS ensembles increase this to over 4 std devs above
climatology by Sunday afternoon.  GFS forecast soundings increase
PWAT at KMAF to ~ 1.7" by 21Z.  The record for Sunday is 1.65". This
increased moisture, as well as increasing cloud cover, will keep
highs only ~ 5-7 F above normal.  Long term models generate
convection early Sunday over Southeast New Mexico and adjacent areas
of West Texas as shortwaves move up through the flow from Mexico.
Chances will spread east and south throughout the day.  The biggest
concerns with this will obviously be flash flooding, but because
this will be a tropical event, flood detection will be difficult due
to radars overshooting efficient warm rain processes that accompany
these events.

This activity looks to peak Sunday night, with the NAM/GFS even
developing a dryline just east of KMAF, and extending down into the
Big Bend Area.

Monday looks to be the coolest day this forecast as surface winds
begin backing to the east-northeast w/the approach of a cold front.
This will combine with persistent cloud cover to keep highs within a
degree or so of normal.  Rain chances will begin tapering off, but
still favor Southeast New Mexico.  Whether the front actually makes
it into out area is up in the air at this point.  The latest NAM
still has it in the Texas Panhandle at the end of its run (00Z
Tuesday), whereas the GFS is more aggressive, bringing it into
northern Lea County by 15Z Monday.  Given that the NAM resolves the
boundary layer better than the GFS, the NAM would be the choice.
However, much will also depend on convective development north of
the front, which would assist in its progression.  Until models
resolve these differences, we`ll stay on the warmer side of things.

Tuesday, a warming trend ensues as ridging begins strengthening over
Texas.  Convective chances taper off to the northwest and the
airmass begins drying out.  Dry grids are anticipated from Tuesday
night onward, and by Thursday afternoon, highs will be back to
~ 8-10 F above where they should be for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

VFR conditions prevail. Southeasterly winds expected through
tomorrow morning with occasional light gusts this afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               62  88  65  89 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                 62  87  64  82 /   0  10  10  40
Dryden                   62  90  64  91 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            62  89  65  90 /   0   0   0  20
Guadalupe Pass           59  79  61  71 /   0  10  20  50
Hobbs                    60  84  62  82 /   0   0   0  30
Marfa                    52  80  56  80 /   0   0  10  30
Midland Intl Airport     63  87  67  88 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                   63  86  67  87 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                     62  88  65  85 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...13