947
FXUS64 KMAF 251945
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
245 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Upper ridging overhead continues to dominate the weather in the
short term, though the center of the ridge has nudged westward some
compared to yesterday. The two main effects of this is slightly more
low/mid level moisture but also a north-northwesterly column-mean
wind. While the typical summertime scattered storms are expected
over the Davis Mountains, additional scattered thunderstorm
development is anticipated this afternoon across portions of Eddy
and Lea counties. While the mean wind may allow a storm or two to
sneak over into the northern Permian Basin, most CAMs indicate any
storms will die off shortly after crossing into Texas, so a bulk of
the storm activity (outside the Davis Mountains area) will be
limited to southeastern New Mexico. Temperature-wise, many spots are
already into the upper 90s and 100s again today. It`ll be close, but
Midland Int`l may kiss the century mark today for the first time
since June 7 (I`m not complaining...).

If for whatever reason Midland doesn`t hit 100 degrees today, we
likely will tomorrow as temperatures will likely be a touch warmer
owing to a slightly stronger ridge that wobbles a bit back to the
east. Even still, similarly to today, will maintain no heat
headlines with only a few isolated spots near criteria. The Big Bend
and the Pecos River valley will be the hottest spots, topping out
between 105 and 110+. A stronger ridge argues for less shower
activity, once again limited to only the Davis Mountains and far
western high terrain.

-Munyan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Not many changes to the forecast, as the upper ridge ridges, and
then ridges some more.

Thursday, the upper ridge is forecast to be centered over Chihuahua,
flattening somewhat due to an upper trough traversing the
US/Canadian border.  Highs will come in ~ 6-8 F above normal, and a
heat advisory or two may be needed.  East-southeasterly upslope flow
will result in a chance of orographic convection over the higher
terrain during the afternoon/evening. These areas continue to be our
most drought-stricken. Unfortunately, QPF looks rather paltry, so
lightning starts remain a concern.  A 40+kt LLJ will keep lows
Thursday night well-above normal.  In fact, a recurring nocturnal
LLJ will keep lows unseasonably warm throughout the extended.

Friday, the ridge continues to elongate, expanding east to the
Carolinas, but not before increasing thicknesses across West Texas
and Southeast New Mexico, yielding perhaps the warmest day in the
extended, with triple-digit highs most areas, warranting more
widespread heat advisories.  Upslope flow will again result in a
chance of afternoon/evening convection, mainly over the higher
terrain.

Beginning Saturday, the ridge refocuses to the southeastern CONUS,
and a downward trend in temperatures ensues as thicknesses decrease.
Sunday is on track to be the coolest day this forecast, when highs
top out right around normal, if not a degree or two above.
Monday/Tuesday, a warming trend kicks in as the ridge recenters
invof the ArklaTex.  Diurnally-driven convection will be possible
each day Saturday through Tuesday over the higher terrain due to
upslope flow.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

VFR prevails throughout the period. Winds are somewhat gusty at
MAF throughout the afternoon, but gusts pick up this evening at
all Texas terminals due to the LLJ. The gusty southeasterly winds
diminish between 09-12z Wednesday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               77 103  77 103 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 78 104  77 101 /  20  20  10  20
Dryden                   77  99  75  98 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            77 102  74 100 /   0  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           76  95  72  93 /  30  40  30  20
Hobbs                    74 102  72  99 /  20   0  10   0
Marfa                    67  98  64  96 /  10  40  20  20
Midland Intl Airport     77 101  75  99 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   77 101  76 100 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     79 106  77 103 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...16