555
FXUS64 KMAF 300454
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1154 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1146 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

- Above normal temperatures with a low to medium (20-60%) chance
  of thunderstorms over the mountains, Southeast New Mexico and
  Permian Basin today.

- A cold front on Saturday brings below-normal temperatures and
  increased precipitation chances. There will be a medium to high
  (50- 80%) chance of thunderstorms each day through Labor Day for
  much of the region.

- There is medium to high (50-80%) confidence in 0.5" to 1"
  rainfall totals through Labor Day for a large portion of the
  area. There is low (10-30%) confidence in 1.5" or higher
  rainfall totals, but locally higher amounts are possible.

- Widespread flash flooding appears unlikely, but localized flash
  flooding remains possible. Urban and low-lying areas are most at
  risk for potential flash flooding.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday night)
Issued at 113 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Little change to the overall forecast. A stalled front sits over the
Permian Basin west across the Pecos River Valley and into the upper
Trans Pecos. This front will be part of the focus for scattered
showers and storms developing this afternoon and carrying into this
evening. Ensemble guidance for tonight through to early Saturday
morning show much of the activity beginning in eastern New Mexico
and heading southeast into southeast NM and the Permian Basin.
Isolated activity will also develop across the Davis Mountains and
the Stockton Plateau and decay after sunset.

The front lingers over the northern part of the CWA through Saturday
morning. Highs for most reach into the mid to upper 90s before rain
chances increase Saturday afternoon/evening. Once again, the front
acts as a focus for convection to develop over southeast New Mexico
and the Permian Basin. Most areas could see between a half inch and
inch of rain over the course of Saturday and into Saturday night
with lower amounts south of I-10, excluding the Davis Mountains. A
few spots may see one to two inches depending on where the strongest
and most efficient rain making storms occur. A few strong storms may
be possible with heavy rain, gusty winds, and lightning as the main
threats, but severe storms are currently not expected.  Localized
flash flooding will be a threat with any slow moving or training
thunderstorms, particularly late Saturday and into Sunday.

-Stickney

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 113 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

A soggy Sunday can be expected across the region. During the morning
and early afternoon, lingering showers and thunderstorms from the
previous day may be impacting portions of Southeast New Mexico and
the Permian Basin. This activity should gradually weaken and
dissipate into the afternoon as it moves south. The cold front and
convective outflow that helped generate these showers and
thunderstorms will continue its slow march south through our region.
Between the cold front, any outflow, and lingering clouds, below-
normal temperatures are expected for all except for areas near the
Rio Grande. Lower to middle 80s across the bulk of the area will be
5 to 10 degrees below normal for this time of year. Despite the
cooler weather, another round of showers and thunderstorms is
expected by the afternoon and evening. The greatest chance of
precipitation is anticipated to be further south compared to
Saturday with the continued progression of the cold front. There
will be a high (60-80%) chance of precipitation along the Trans
Pecos and over neighboring areas. Elsewhere a slightly lower (40-
60%) chance of precipitation is expected.

For Labor Day, a similar scenario to Sunday is expected, though
further to the south. There may be lingering showers and
thunderstorms during the morning and early afternoon before another
round of showers and thunderstorms develops during the late
afternoon and evening. Temperatures continue to remain well-below
normal, even along the Rio Grande this time. There is a medium to
high (50-70%) chance of precipitation across the Davis Mountains,
Presidio Valley, and Big Bend. With a low to medium (20-40%) chance
of precipitation along the Trans Pecos. Drier weather begins to
makes its way into areas north of the Trans Pecos and additional
rainfall appears unlikely.

Over the course of the weekend and the Labor Day Holiday it is
expected that many locations will have received significant
rainfall. These rainfall amounts are not expected to cause
widespread flash flooding, but localized flash flooding remains a
concern. This threat is increased for areas in complex terrain or
urban areas that are more susceptible to flooding. At this time,
there is high (60-80%) confidence in 0.5" to 1" of rainfall for the
majority. A few areas may receive upwards of 1.5" of rainfall.
Rainfall amounts above 1.5" appear unlikely with only a low (10-30%)
confidence in these amounts. That being said, if certain areas
receive multiple rounds of heavy thunderstorms or prolonged
downpours, locally higher amounts of 2"+ remain possible.

After Monday, temperatures warm slightly, but remain below normal.
Upper 80s and lower 90s can be anticipated throughout much of next
week. Drier weather does return to the region, but a lingering
threat of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms continues.
There is a low (10-30%) chance of precipitation each day for portions
of the area, especially over the mountains. Another cold front may
enter the picture late next week, but ensemble guidance remains
split on this outcome. This cold front will be monitored for another
potential shot of increased precipitation and below normal
temperatures.

-Chehak

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Widespread thunderstorms will continue across SE NM and the
northern Permian Basin for the next few hours. A strong outflow
will move south across the rest of the terminals overnight
switching winds to the north and northeast. Confidence in
additional storms across southern terminals is low through
sunrise. Winds will slowly veer back to the southeast by
afternoon. Another round of storms is likely this afternoon, but
confidence in location and timing remains low as storm
development will likely be dictated by where tonight`s outflow
boundaries end up.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               71  96  68  86 /  30  60  70  70
Carlsbad                 70  95  68  83 /  50  40  70  60
Dryden                   75 101  74  96 /   0  10  20  50
Fort Stockton            72  99  69  87 /  20  30  30  70
Guadalupe Pass           65  86  63  76 /  50  50  60  70
Hobbs                    67  92  65  84 /  60  50  70  60
Marfa                    63  90  62  81 /  20  40  30  80
Midland Intl Airport     72  96  69  86 /  40  40  70  70
Odessa                   71  96  68  85 /  40  40  60  70
Wink                     72  96  68  86 /  40  40  60  70

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....91
AVIATION...29