780
FXUS64 KMAF 262243
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
543 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 541 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

- Temperatures warm again this weekend, with generally decreasing
  rain chances (though 30-50% chances are maintained for the Davis
  Mountains, Stockton Plateau, and Big Bend). Isolated to
  scattered showers/storms are also possible in the Permian Basin
  today.

- Another storm system is forecast to impact the region by early
  to mid-week. Heavy rainfall is expected with this system, which
  will elevate the risk for flash flooding.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Current water vapor imagery depicts an upper-level shortwave
departing from west Texas and southeast New Mexico. Behind this
feature, the flow aloft becomes more zonal to northwesterly through
the Short Term period as ridging attempts to build over the region
again. So, while the last few days have featured near-normal
temperatures, highs today and Sunday tick back into the upper 80s
and low 90s for most locations. In general, rain chances also
decrease across the area. The best chances (30-50%) for scattered
showers and thunderstorms will be in the Davis Mountains, Stockton
Plateau, and Big Bend both today and Sunday, thanks mainly to
upslope flow. For today, residual lift from the departing trough and
remnant outflow from previous convection will also encourage
isolated to scattered shower and storm development for portions of
the Permian Basin (10-30% chances). Forecast soundings depict
sufficient instability (1000-2000 J/kg of CAPE), DCAPE (around 1000
J/kg), and PWATs (1.3-1.5 inches) to allow a couple of storms to
become strong or marginally severe again today. Similar to previous
days, the heaviest storms may produce strong winds, small hail, and
heavy rainfall leading to localized flash flooding. Overnight lows
tonight and Monday morning bottom out in the mid-to-upper 60s and
low 70s across the area. We are still monitoring another system this
week that will usher in another cooler and wetter pattern across the
area. See the Long Term discussion for more details on that and the
potential for more flash flooding.

Sprang

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

A more active weather pattern is forecast to take shape beginning
early next week as another upper-level system (albeit a more intense
one) approaches the region on Monday. As the system approaches, rain
chances begin to increase across our westernmost zones. Long-range
guidance continues to show remnants of Hurricane Polo being pulled
into the aforementioned system. This will provide abundant mid-level
Pacific moisture while lee cyclogenesis draws in Gulf moisture at
the lower levels. As a result, areawide rain chances can be expected
beginning Monday night and lasting through at least Wednesday, with
the best chances across southeast New Mexico and far west Texas.
Anomalously high PWAT values associated with the tropical airmass
are likely to exceed the daily maximum climatologically speaking,
which means flash flooding is a major concern next week (especially
in locations where soils are completely saturated due to recent
rainfall). Guidance continues to indicate Tuesday being the
"wettest" day given the positioning of these two systems as they
would provide plenty of lift and moisture. However, there remains
uncertainty regarding the exact positioning/timing of the
aforementioned systems and their impacts.

Aside from the heavy rain/flash flood potential, long-range
guidance depicts a cold front sweeping through our area sometime
around Wednesday/Wednesday night next week. This could yield
afternoon highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s, with drier conditions
behind the front late in the week. Though some rain chances (10-30%)
stick around across our eastern zones as the upper trough departs
the region.

Greening

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 541 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in light/variable flow,
although some models bring in a weak boundary from the northwest
Sunday afternoon. Chances of convection are slim, but a
widespread, low-based cu field is anticipated by noon Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               71  95  71  95 /  30   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 63  87  63  88 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                   73  97  74  96 /  20  20  10   0
Fort Stockton            69  93  68  94 /  10  10   0  10
Guadalupe Pass           62  80  64  80 /   0   0   0  30
Hobbs                    64  88  63  89 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    60  83  61  84 /   0  30   0  10
Midland Intl Airport     71  93  70  93 /  20   0   0   0
Odessa                   71  92  71  93 /  10   0   0   0
Wink                     68  95  68  95 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...99