685
FXUS64 KMAF 301117
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
617 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 613 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

- High rain chances (50-80%) continue this afternoon and evening
  in the Permian Basin, shifting farther south Sunday.

- Localized flash flooding associated with heavy rainfall is
  possible through the weekend.

- Temperatures near or below seasonal norms are expected by the
  end of the weekend through the rest of the extended period.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico. This activity has produced heavy rain
(especially across central Lea County) and numerous outflow
boundaries. Current Mesoscale Analysis also depicts a more broad
convergence zone spanning roughly from Culberson County through the
Central Permian Basin.

This afternoon through Sunday morning is still expected to feature
the highest rain chances for much of the area, particularly the
Permian Basin. Flash flooding will be the primary concern this
evening and overnight given anomalously high atmospheric moisture
and the potential for training thunderstorms. That being said, where
exactly the most showers and thunderstorms set up is still a bit up
in the air. Complicating this forecast is the presence of so many
boundaries, which can influence stability and where convergence
zones (and thus the best lift for thunderstorms) set up. At this
time, we have put the highest rain chances (50-80%) from the Davis
Mountains up through the central and northern Permian Basin, which
more or less aligns with model guidance from the HRRR and HREF. We
elected to abstain from issuing a Flash Flood Watch for now given
the nature of this forecast, but one may be deemed necessary later
today as confidence increases in shower/thunderstorm positioning.
Stay tuned for updates throughout the day!

The forecast Sunday afternoon is also a bit up in the air, as it
depends greatly on what happens Saturday night and Sunday morning.
That being said, the best rain chances (50-80%) will set up farther
south, mainly along the Trans-Pecos down towards the Davis Mountains
and into the Big Bend. Once again, we will need to keep an eye out
for localized flash flooding. Otherwise, expect cooler temperatures
to round off the weekend and continue into next week!

Sprang

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

By Labor Day, the effective cold front/outflow boundary from weekend
convection should rest along the Pecos River or further south. There
is still quite a bit of uncertainty in convective initiation as we
don`t quite know where boundaries will lie. All indications are that
storms will develop over the higher terrain east along the I-10
corridor by Monday afternoon and slide south. PWATs will remain
around +2 SD so heavy rain and flash flooding is the main threat.
Drier air filtering in with a north wind will keep much of the
Permian Basin dry with temperatures staying slightly below normal.

Drier conditions are in store midweek with deep northwesterly flow
shoving moisture off to our east and south. Temperatures recover
back to normal with highs generally around 90 degrees. Models
diverge with respect to the upper pattern late in the week. A strong
trough over the Great Lakes will send a front south across the
Plains, but models are backing off on a substantial cooldown for our
area. With low confidence this far out, big changes in the forecast
are possible in the extended as we move closer to next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Scattered SHRA and a few TSRA continue across the region this
morning. This activity has weakened over the past hour and should
continue to do so through sunrise. RA will end from west to east
this morning with VFR returning areawide. More storms are expected
to develop this afternoon, but low confidence exists as to
location and timing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               96  68  86  66 /  60  70  70  40
Carlsbad                 95  68  83  66 /  50  70  60  50
Dryden                  101  74  96  71 /  30  20  50  60
Fort Stockton            99  69  87  66 /  40  50  70  60
Guadalupe Pass           86  63  76  62 /  60  60  70  50
Hobbs                    92  65  84  63 /  50  70  60  40
Marfa                    90  62  81  61 /  60  50  80  50
Midland Intl Airport     96  69  86  67 /  50  70  70  50
Odessa                   96  68  85  67 /  50  70  70  50
Wink                     96  68  86  66 /  40  60  70  50

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...29