735
FXUS64 KMAF 251731
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1231 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1220 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

- Shower and thunderstorm chances (20-70%) continue for areas
  west of the Pecos River each day. Locally heavy rainfall and
  flash flooding will continue to be the main threat.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances (10-30%) return to the Permian
  Basin/Lower Trans-Pecos early next week.

- Gradual warming trend through Sunday before a slight cooling
  trend early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 146 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Showers and storms continue to move across the Guadalupe Mountains
and Eddy County this morning. The threat for heavy rainfall and
flash flooding will persist until these storms dissipate around
sunrise.

Our region remains on the western periphery of a large mid level
ridge centered over the Tennessee Valley. Deep tropical moisture
from both the Pacific and Gulf of America will continue to keep
PWATs near all time record levels for June, especially west of the
Pecos River. After a brief break in convection later this morning,
yet another round of showers and thunderstorms will develop across
the higher terrain this afternoon. Due to a saturated ground and
very efficient rain-producing storms, will extend the Flood Watch
another day. Very little change is expected into Thursday so expect
a "rinse and repeat". It`s likely the Flood Watch will need to be
extended even more given the current forecast. Temperatures will
remain below average out west with all the rain and clouds, but the
heat continues to the east. Highs will top out in the mid 90s each
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 146 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Little has changed in the long term forecast. Showers and
thunderstorms are forecast to continue each day/night west of the
Pecos River through Sunday. This is thanks to surface troughing
extending down through the high plains, orographic lift, and
anomalously high PWAT values. Model guidance depicts a weak mid-
level shortwave moving over the Southern High Plains early next
week, bringing chances of rain to the Permian Basin again.
Additional Flood Watches may be warranted west of the Pecos River to
account for the abundant rainfall. Thankfully, temperatures remain
steady around normal as thicknesses struggle to increase throughout
the extended.

Greening

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Showers and thunderstorms have developed near CNM and HOB
terminals which will continue to develop this afternoon for areas
further to the south. Coverage is expected to become more
widespread late this afternoon into the early evening hours across
southeastern New Mexico and far west Texas. VFR conditions are
still expected to mainly prevail with breezy to gusty southerly
winds.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               72  94  72  96 /  10  10  10   0
Carlsbad                 69  86  68  88 /  40  60  30  40
Dryden                   73  95  73  96 /  10  10   0   0
Fort Stockton            71  91  71  93 /  20  30  10  20
Guadalupe Pass           64  78  64  80 /  50  70  40  50
Hobbs                    69  87  68  90 /  30  30  20  20
Marfa                    65  82  64  83 /  40  60  30  50
Midland Intl Airport     73  94  72  94 /  10  10  10   0
Odessa                   72  92  72  93 /  10  10  10   0
Wink                     72  91  71  93 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch through late tonight for Chinati Mountains-Davis
     Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson-
     Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware
     Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Presidio Valley-Reeves County
     Plains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

NM...Flood Watch through this evening for Eddy County Plains-
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...11