527
FXUS64 KMAF 031907
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
107 PM CST Sat Jan 3 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 103 PM CST Sat Jan 3 2026

- Warmer than average temperatures peaking late this weekend into
  early week, then a cooling trend mid week into next weekend.

- Precipitation chances redevelop over the area by mid week and
  persist into the weekend, but there is uncertainty in timing, coverage,
  likely accumulation, and type of any precipitation at this
  time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 103 PM CST Sat Jan 3 2026

The warmer than average temperatures and dry weather persist
through this weekend, but with lighter winds than Thursday and
Friday as the mid to upper air pattern settles into more of a
ridging configuration, and higher winds are displaced to the north
of the ridging. VIS/IR satellite imagery early this afternoon
depicts only a few mid to high level clouds drifting northeast
over SE NM plains, and southeast over central and southeast
Permian Basin. The mostly sunny skies and ample diurnal heating
will be slightly offset by northerly winds in the wake of
yesterday`s weak cold front to yield highs in the mid to upper 60s
F, upper 50s to lower 60s F Guadalupes, and low to mid 70s F
basins of Culberson County as well as Rio Grande basins into
Terrell County and Stockton Plateau. Dew point temperatures will
remain relatively unchanged and in the 30s F, upper 20s F western
higher terrain through tonight under scattered clouds while winds
shift back to southerly, resulting in lows falling into the mid
30s to mid 40s F.

Sunday, the weak cold front stalls and dissipates to the south of
the area, lee troughing strengthens from the Front Range of the
Central Rockies into eastern New Mexico, and the center of ridging
develops closer to the area. All of this will be accompanied by
increasing southerly winds and dew point temperatures rising into
the mid 30s to 40s F for most of W TX northeast of western higher
terrain. Mid to high clouds are also forecast to increase in the
mid to upper quasi- zonal flow aloft advecting in eastern Pacific
moisture. This results in highs up to 5F warmer and in the lower
to mid 70s F range, 60s F higher elevations, and lower to mid 80s
F in the Big Bend, with lows 5F to 10F warmer than the previous
night and ranging from the lower 40s F to lower 50s F, with 30s F
limited to basins and foothills of higher elevations of the Marfa
Plateau and northern Lea County. A cooldown and possibly some
precipitation is in the forecast by the end of next week. Read the
long term discussion below for more.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 103 PM CST Sat Jan 3 2026

Warm and dry weather continues through the weekend into early
next week before precipitation chances and cooler, more seasonable
temperatures return to the area. That is what the forecast is
looking like into next weekend. Deterministic and ensemble
forecasts depict a quasi-zonal mid to upper ridging air pattern
persisting into midweek. The only interruptions in this pattern
until then are occasional mid to upper level regions of high winds
in jet streaks rounding the northern part of the ridge from the
Four Corners into TX Panhandle, imparting occasional breezy to
gusty westerly downsloping winds. Monday, highs rise a few degrees
from Sunday for most places apart from the higher elevations.
This translates to mid to upper 70s F most of Permian Basin, upper
70s to lower 80s F Rio Grande basins into Terrell County and
Stockton Plateau, lower 70s F most of SE NM plains, and 60s F
higher elevations of Guadalupes into Marfa Plateau. Dew point
temperatures remain in the 30s to lower 40s F with breezy westerly
winds decreasing in the evening amidst mid to high level clouds.
This yields overnight cooling that only allows lows ranging from
the mid to upper 30s F over basins and foothills of Culberson
County and Davis Mountains into northern SE NM plains, 40s F north
of Rio Grande basins into Terrell County and east of Marfa
Plateau, and 50s F for these southernmost locations. Tuesday,
ridging temporarily redevelops west and allows a weak cold front
to organize from a stationary boundary extending from the TX
Panhandle and Southeast New Mexico and develop to the southeast
over the rest of the week. Despite this, winds remain westerly
until late week, since forecast surface analysis is predicting the
cold front will be slow to clear the area. Expect highs to trend
down from Monday into Wednesday by a few degrees each day, while
lows stay similar to Monday night.

To the west of the relocated ridging, another upper storm system
is forecast to deepen over the Pacific SW and then develop east-
northeast into the Desert SW and Southern Great Plains. By
Thursday, this spreads over the area high winds advecting eastern
Pacific moisture in the mid to upper troposphere. The increasing
lift with the approaching cold front, forcing for ascent both at
the surface and aloft with the approaching storm system, and
moisture advection from the Pacific yields precipitation
probabilities across the area Thursday into Friday. At this time,
amounts, type, and timing are unknown. However, deterministic
forecast soundings predicting more than a 30F temperature dew
point temperature high dew point temperature difference in the
lower atmosphere, most of the increased moisture being in the mid
to upper atmosphere, and ensembles indicating only a tenth of an
inch accumulation in highest percentile and NBM depicting near
zero accumulation even for higher elevations - all suggest that at
this time any precipitation will be very light and not result in
any flooding concerns or major travel impacts. Thursday into
Friday is also when we`ll see a more pronounced temperature
decrease in highs by up to 5F each day, while lows and dew point
temperatures tumble by 5F to 10F into the early weekend. This far
out, this translates to highs in the mid 50s into mid 60s F range
Permian northwest of 70s F in eastern Stockton Plateau and Rio
Grande basins into Terrell County for Thursday with mid 30s to mid
40s F lows and near freezing over Marfa Plateau, basins of
Culberson County and northern Lea County, 40s and 50s F higher
elevations to mid 50s to mid 60s F range Friday and lows near to
below freezing north of Rio Grande basins, and 40s to mid 50s F
range north of Rio Grande basins, 60s F near the Rio Grande from
Presidio Valley into Terrell County for next Saturday with lows
below freezing north of Rio Grande basins and near freezing down
into Rio Grande basins. Additionally, non-zero but very low
precipitation probabilities are indicated in the NBM and ensembles
when these colder temperatures return. This could very well
change in the coming days, but it`s something to keep an eye on
given we are still in the climatologically coldest part of the
winter season.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1101 AM CST Sat Jan 3 2026

VFR conditions continue the next 24 hours. Light northerly winds
will shift from the southeast by around 00Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               40  73  46  78 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 40  70  48  73 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   44  72  46  78 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            45  80  50  81 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           43  64  46  64 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    39  70  43  73 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    34  73  38  73 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     43  71  47  77 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   43  71  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     40  73  44  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...10