569
FXUS64 KMAF 191832
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
132 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 130 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

- Highs remain above normal through Monday, but trend cooler
  beginning Tuesday.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop across the
  region through the weekend. A few storms will be capable of
  producing localized strong downburst winds, frequent lightning,
  and heavy rainfall that may lead to localized flash flooding.

- Storm chances continue into the early to middle part of next
  week. Flash flooding will continue to be a hazard.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Little change to the forecast for today and into tonight from the
previous package. Satellite imagery and mesoanalysis continue to
indicate southwesterly flow over the western half of the region with
a ridge parked over the Arklatex. Surface dew points remain 60-65+
across the CWA and increasing moisture aloft along with a shortwave
moving in from the west will aid in developing scattered showers and
storms across the higher terrain and Big Bend with coverage
expanding later this afternoon and evening into the Permian Basin.
Convection decays and move out of the region late tonight, but with
the bulk of the moisture remaining in the area, rain chances
continue on Sunday with a focus across the eastern third of the
area. A few storms today will be strong to severe with damaging
winds and heavy rainfall as the main threats. Highs tomorrow will be
about the same as today with most locations reaching into the 90s.

-Stickney

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Heading into Sunday evening, showers and storms from earlier in the
day begin to decay and move to the east. During the day on Monday, a
cold front approaches from the north, but with the onset of daytime
heating, it will slow and stall between Midland and Lubbock. Rain
chances increase along and behind the front Monday evening. The
front pushes south into the region on Tuesday and rain chances
spread nearly areawide with the highest chances (50-70%) across
southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin. Lower chances (20-40%)
continue south of the I-10 corridor.

Each day from Tuesday through Thursday will be similar with rounds
of rain developing each of those afternoons mainly across the
northern half of the CWA. Low confidence on how much will fall over
the course of the week and will depend on where the most favorable
environment will be each day. Medium range continues to put the
focus over southeast New Mexico and into central New Mexico. Highs
during this time drop into the 80s to low 90s for most, which is an
improvement from the late season heat, but will still be above
normal for the end of September. Overnight lows settle into the 60s
partly because of a cooler airmass and northeasterly flow at the
surface as well as increased cloud cover and rain chances.

-Stickney

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

VFR continues for all sites, but TEMPO added from 23-03z at most
terminals as isolated to scattered TS develop this afternoon and
linger through this evening. Amendments will be necessary based on
evening radar trends. Southerly winds prevail outside of any
convection.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               74  98  70  94 /  30  20  40  20
Carlsbad                 67  97  69  95 /  20  10   0  10
Dryden                   75  97  73  97 /  30  30  20  10
Fort Stockton            72  95  70  94 /  30  30  20  10
Guadalupe Pass           65  87  66  86 /  30  10   0  10
Hobbs                    67  95  67  91 /  30  10  10  30
Marfa                    62  89  61  88 /  50  40  10  20
Midland Intl Airport     73  96  71  94 /  30  20  30  20
Odessa                   74  96  72  94 /  30  20  30  20
Wink                     72  98  71  96 /  30  10  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...93