357
FXUS64 KMAF 290330
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1030 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1029 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

- An upper-level system and remnant tropical moisture from
  Hurricane Polo will bring increasing chances of showers/storms
  Monday night through Wednesday morning across southeast New
  Mexico and far West Texas.

- Flash flooding due to heavy rainfall and runoff from already
  saturated soils remain a concern across southeast New Mexico
  and the northwest Permian Basin. Strong shear brings a concern
  for brief spin-up tornadoes over the same region Tuesday
  evening.

- A Pacific front is forecast to move through the area by mid-
  week, increasing shower/storm chances farther east and
  decreasing temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday night)
Issued at 155 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

The forecast is on track for a wet short term period. Water vapor
imagery shows an upper-level trough located over the west coast and
Hurricane Polo off the coast of Baja. Meanwhile, the latest surface
analysis shows evidence of a remnant boundary sitting across
portions of the northeast Permian Basin. Along this boundary, a
couple of isolated showers/storms may develop this afternoon and
evening. Additional convection can be expected across our far
western zones due to upslope flow and surface troughing.

Chances of rain begin to increase and extend farther east into
southeast New Mexico, the Trans Pecos, and western Permian Basin
overnight into Tuesday morning as the aforementioned systems
approach the area. Forecast soundings continue to show anomalously
high PWAT Values between 1.4"-1.7" (> 90th percentile per the SPC
Sounding Climatology page), long skinny CAPE profiles, strong deep-
layer shear, and deep warm cloud layers. As a result, flash flooding
due to heavy rainfall/runoff remains to be a concern across
southeast New Mexico and the northwest Permian Basin where soils are
saturated due to last week`s rainfall. Given strong shear/favorably
curved hodographs, we will also be monitoring for brief spin-up
tornadoes (especially Tuesday evening) across portions of southeast
New Mexico. CAMs even suggest this potential, showing storms
evolving into a line by Tuesday evening which also yields a gusty
wind threat. Otherwise, background winds are forecast to be quite
breezy Tuesday afternoon/evening as the aforementioned trough passes
overhead and inflow gets drawn into remnants of Polo from the Gulf.
Higher winds are expected in the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains.
However, winds shall remain below high wind criteria.

Greening

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 155 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

By Wednesday, the base of the upper-level trough moves over our area
and a Pacific front begins pushing through the region. As these
systems progress, shower/storm chances move east across the eastern
half of our CWA and bring drier conditions out west. However, it
should be noted that dry slotting may prevent some areas from seeing
some rain (including the Midland/Odessa area). Nevertheless, flash
flooding due to locally heavy rainfall will be possible across the
eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans-Pecos. Behind the Pacific
front, southwesterly breezy conditions are forecast before subsiding
Wednesday evening. Model guidance shows the front pushing south and
east by the latter half of the week, keeping shower/storm chances
across our far eastern zones (though adjustments to the forecasts
are likely). Aside from rain chances, a cooling trend is expected to
last all week (thanks to the front), with highs possibly dropping
into the 70s by the end of the week and into the weekend.

Greening

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1029 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

A near-perfect storm is setting up, as a large trough over SoCal
phases w/remnants of Hurricane Polo, ushering in large-scale
ascent and tropical moisture as the trough digs into southern
Arizona. As such, return flow will increase in response to leeside
troughing on the Front Range, becoming gusty by noon Tuesday.
Convective chances will increase over the next 24 hours,
especially late afternoon/early evening over Southeast New
Mexico. A few hours of MVFR cigs are possible Tuesday morning
KCNM/KHOB.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               73  90  72  88 /  10  20  60  80
Carlsbad                 68  86  65  81 /  50  80  50  10
Dryden                   75  93  74  94 /  10  10  50  50
Fort Stockton            72  91  71  89 /  20  20  40  30
Guadalupe Pass           64  77  60  69 /  80  80  60  20
Hobbs                    68  85  65  80 /  50  70  90  20
Marfa                    63  84  62  80 /  40  40  40  10
Midland Intl Airport     72  88  72  86 /  10  20  60  50
Odessa                   73  88  72  86 /  20  20  60  30
Wink                     73  92  72  87 /  40  60  70  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for Eastern Culberson-
     Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware
     Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

NM...Flood Watch through late Tuesday night for Central Lea-Eddy
     County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Northern
     Lea-Southern Lea.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...99