699
FXUS64 KMAF 201123
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
523 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 517 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

- Widespread showers and storms today bringing locally heavy
  rainfall and isolated areas of flash flooding.

- Strong winds over Guadalupe Mountains today and tonight.

- Another storm system brings high rain chances back to the region
  Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1251 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

An active 12-18 hours continues today as an upper level storm system
lifts over the region. Area radar shows rain to our west and another
band to our east over the Concho Valley. Hi-res models continue to
indicate additional showers and thunderstorms will develop across SE
NM as well as the eastern Permian Basin toward sunrise. The threat
for any severe storms will be low, but we can`t rule out some small
hail and gusty winds with any storm. PWATs remain high so heavy rain
and isolated areas of flash flooding will be the main threat. Fast
moving storms should help mitigate this concern, but if any training
were to occur low water crossings and poor drainage areas could
quickly become overwhelmed. Additional storms are expected through
the afternoon ahead of an eastward moving Pacific front that should
clear our region by sunset. Temperatures remain similar to yesterday
with highs mostly in the 70s except for the higher terrain (50s)
where the front will pass first. Gusty west winds will develop
behind the front especially across the Guadalupe Mountains where
gusts near 60 mph look likely. For this reason have issued a High
Wind Warning for this afternoon and evening.

Temperatures finally cool back toward normal overnight with lows in
the 30s and 40s. High pressure settling overhead Friday will make
for a beautiful day with light winds, plenty of sun, and highs in
the 60s/70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 1251 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Our active pattern continues with another storm system set to affect
the region this weekend. Attention turns west as another upper
trough dives south over Baja Saturday. Southwesterly flow will
quickly increase overhead helping to spread high clouds back over
the region Saturday afternoon. This will keep high temperatures in
check and mostly in the 60s. Gulf of America moisture gets drawn
back west early next week as the upper trough approaches. Increased
lift will lead to more showers and thunderstorms developing during
the day Sunday. The threat for severe storms and flash flooding
appear low at this time as this system looks to move through rather
quickly. This could change so continue to monitor the forecast for
updates. Yet another Pacific front will follow behind the upper
trough keeping temperatures above normal, but not as significant as
what we saw last week. Highs in the 60s/70s with lows in the 30s/40s
are expected into the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 517 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Currently seeing VFR at all terminals with TS to our north and
east. Showers and storms remain possible through the afternoon,
but coverage is uncertain. Gusty west winds (~25 kts) are
expected areawide behind a cold front. These winds will diminish
around sunset.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               70  45  70  42 /  70   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 69  42  69  39 /  50   0   0   0
Dryden                   77  50  78  52 /  60  10   0   0
Fort Stockton            77  46  73  46 /  50   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           58  39  57  43 /  50   0   0   0
Hobbs                    67  40  66  37 /  70   0   0   0
Marfa                    67  33  66  38 /  30   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     71  45  69  43 /  80   0   0   0
Odessa                   71  45  68  44 /  80   0   0   0
Wink                     71  42  70  40 /  50   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Warning from noon CST /11 AM MST/ today to 9 PM CST /8
     PM MST/ this evening for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000
     Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

NM...High Wind Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MST this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...29