444
FXUS64 KMAF 171945
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
245 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 145 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for Southeast New Mexico and most
  of West Texas until around sundown. A Heat Advisory will
  continue overnight and until around sundown Wednesday for the
  Chisos Basin, Central and Lower Brester County, and the Presidio
  Valley. Warm temperatures are expected the rest of the week into
  Saturday.

- Rain chances begin increasing again next Sunday, accompanied by
  cooler temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

WV imagery this afternoon shows the upper ridge centered over Baja,
and nosing into West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.  For those who
prefer warmer weather, today is your day.  Thicknesses have
increased under the ridge`s influence, and modest return flow will
yield afternoon highs ~ 10-15 F above normal, putting most areas in
triple digits/Heat Advisory territory.  Convective chances are
minimal this afternoon/evening, but CAMs develop isolated/brief
convection this afternoon in the Davis Mountains, and a little
activity along a weak dryline in the northeast this evening.

For those who like cooler weather, on the other hand, today will be
by far the warmest day this forecast, as a cold front will attempt
to invade the area overnight.  This looks to affect mainly the
northwest zones, as a strong, 50+kt LLJ is forecast to develop over
the southeast Permian Basin, keeping the front at bay over the
southeastern zones.  Temperatures will average a degree or so
cooler, but temperatures in the Permian Basin and southeast will be
uncomfortably similar to this morning`s temperatures.

Wednesday, highs will come down ~ 5-6 F as the front moves through,
with the biggest changes in the north, as would be expected, and the
least change along the Rio Grande.  This cooling will keep most
locations out of Heat Advisory territory, but areas along the Rio
Grande won`t fare much better than today.  In fact, expected
overnight lows are warm enough that the current Heat Advisory for
down there can just be extended overnight straight through tomorrow
afternoon.

Wednesday night, another, more widespread 50+kt LLJ is forecast to
develop, pushing a warm front through the eastern zones.  CAMs hint
at isolated convection Wednesday evening over the Western Low
Rolling Plains.  Models keep deep-layer shear supportive of
supercells well northeast of the area, so no severe activity is
expected attm.  Unfortunately, with the LLJ and warm front,
overnight lows may cool only a degree or so from tonight`s, so warm
overnights are probably going to be around for awhile.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Thursday, although the upper ridge will move east and pass directly
over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, it will weaken somewhat,
and thicknesses/temperatures will continue coming down.  An upper
trough will begin muscling into the PacNW the rest of the week,
nudging the ridge into the southeastern CONUS and continuing to
downward trend in temperatures through Monday afternoon, when highs
struggle to within a few degrees of normal.  During this time, the
dryline will head to El Paso, and boundary-layer moisture will
increase, signally perhaps the start of the faux monsoon.  Beginning
Saturday night, and especially Sunday, convective chances will begin
increasing in the west as shortwaves calve off of the PacNW trough
and move through the region.  Chances should increase through at
least monday, but look good for the duration of the forecast. Better
yet, chances look best in areas that are D4 and in the worst drought
than anywhere else in the country at the moment. Stay tuned...

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Southerly to
southwesterly winds are expected to shift northerly/northwesterly
at most terminals by tomorrow morning, thanks to a cold front
moving through the region. Occasional gusts up to 30-35 kts are
anticipated through much of the period at most sites as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               74  98  73  96 /  10  10  10   0
Carlsbad                 71  97  71  97 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   75 102  75  97 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            75 100  72  95 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           71  91  69  91 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    67  93  68  95 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    65  95  65  91 /   0  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport     75 100  73  97 /   0   0  10   0
Odessa                   74  99  72  96 /   0   0  10   0
Wink                     71 100  73  97 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-
     Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis
     Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Eastern
     Culberson-Ector-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
     Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Loving-Lower Brewster
     County-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Pecos-Presidio Valley-
     Reeves County Plains-Terrell-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

NM...Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for Central Lea-Eddy
     County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Northern
     Lea-Southern Lea.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...11