363
FXUS64 KMAF 290711
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
211 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 206 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

- Patchy (locally dense) fog possible early this morning mainly
  across portions of southeast New Mexico, the Permian Basin, and
  Pecos River Valley.

- Numerous showers/storms are in store today through Friday
  evening. Multiple rounds of heavy rainfall will lead to flash
  flooding, especially across low-lying and urban areas.

- Another system brings windy conditions and near-to-below normal
  temperatures to the area early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday afternoon)
Issued at 206 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

As of 2 AM CDT, nighttime microphysics show high clouds over much
of the region with mid-level clouds across portions of southeast
New Mexico and the Big Bend. Increasing low-level moisture is
expected to develop low clouds shortly before the morning commute.
Meanwhile, patchy (locally dense) fog looks to develop around the
same time across portions of southeast New Mexico, the Pecos
River Valley, and the Permian Basin. Wherever dense fog develops,
visibilities may drop below 1/4 mile. However, high clouds and
winds may limit fog development (or at least density) this
morning.

An upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move overhead while
remnant moisture from what was Tropical Storm Vance gets pulled into
the area. Bands of rain are expected to move into our southernmost
zones around the Big Bend early this morning before spreading
northward. As these bands move north, coverage of showers and storms
are expected to become scattered to numerous. Showers and storms
reach the Trans Pecos and southern portions of the Permian Basin by
this afternoon and southeast New Mexico/northern Permian Basin by
late afternoon/early evening. Forecast soundings continue to show
Precipitable water (PWAT) values exceeding the 90th climatological
percentile across the eastern half of our CWA. This suggests a
favorable environment for flash flooding, especially in areas that
receive multiple rounds of heavy rainfall. To account for this, a
Flood Watch is in effect from late Thursday morning through late
Friday afternoon. Hi-res models continues to show a brief window of
opportunity for a storm or two becoming strong to severe Thursday
afternoon. Though the overall severe threat is low, excessive water
loading may produce a brief wet microburst or two.

The heavy rainfall/flash flood threat increases Thursday night
through Friday morning as tropical moisture increases and heights
continue to drop with the upper-level shortwave. Urban streets and
low-lying spots are where the biggest concerns of considerable flash
flooding may result given their vulnerabilities. Ensemble and
deterministic guidance continue to trend toward rainfall amounts of
1-3" (locally higher) across the eastern eastern half of our CWA.
However, uncertainty remains in where the exact heaviest rainfall
amounts will occur. Where the heaviest rainfall sets up will be
strongly dependent on the track of the low from remnants of what was
Tropical Storm Vance. Since the latest hi-res guidance continues to
favor the highest rainfall totals east of the Pecos River, we have
opted not to expand the Flood Watch farther west.

Greening

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 206 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

By Friday night, the bulk of convection moves north and east beyond
our area. Behind the upper-level system Saturday morning and
afternoon, some remnant isolated showers will be possible across the
area. The relatively better chances will be across our far western
counties and in/near the higher terrain (10-30% chances there).
Nevertheless, given the isolated nature of this convection, most
locations still look to remain dry for Halloween. By Sunday, the
active weather pattern continues as a pair of upper-level troughs
approach west Texas and southeast New Mexico from the west and
northwest. Ahead of this, shower and thunderstorm chances increase
again, this time mainly across southeast New Mexico and the northern
Permian Basin. Chances range from 20-40% in general for these
locations.

Monday and Tuesday, the aforementioned troughs (which at this time
will have merged together) move across the region. By Monday
afternoon, most moisture will have been pushed east of our area.
That keeps rain chances at a minimum for most locations as the upper
low passes. The exception will be in the Lower Trans-Pecos and far
eastern Permian Basin, where remnant moisture allows low (20-40%)
shower and thunderstorm chances to hang around through Monday
evening. As the system moves across the region, an attendant upper-
level jet moves overhead, while a nearby surface low pushes a cold
front into our area. Both of these features imply windy conditions
Monday and Tuesday across the vast majority of west Texas and
southeast New Mexico, but it is too early to tell if/where wind
products will be necessary (though this pattern certainly does favor
at least high winds in the Guadalupes). Otherwise temperatures cool
behind the front. Highs Saturday through Monday largely top out in
the mid-to-upper 70s and low 80s. By Tuesday and Wednesday, plenty
of spread still exists within guidance as to just how much cooler we
get, but right now it looks like most locations will see highs in
the upper 60s and low 70s (near-to-below seasonal norms for early
November).

Sprang

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

MVFR/IFR CIGs develop around 10-12Z this morning. BR/FG may develop
at CNM/HOB/PEQ (less confident at PEQ) around 11-13Z before
dissipating around 16/17Z. Iso to sct RA and even TSRA likely
tomorrow afternoon and evening at all terminals. RA/TSRA expected to
begin south of FST and gradually spread northward throughout the day
Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               76  59  69  58 /  70 100 100  20
Carlsbad                 75  57  72  56 /  60  90  20  20
Dryden                   71  60  73  61 / 100 100  40  30
Fort Stockton            73  60  74  59 /  80 100  10  10
Guadalupe Pass           67  54  66  54 /  50  80  10  20
Hobbs                    72  55  67  53 /  70 100  50  10
Marfa                    68  53  71  52 /  90  90  10  10
Midland Intl Airport     73  59  69  58 /  90 100  80  10
Odessa                   73  59  69  59 /  80 100  70  10
Wink                     75  59  72  58 /  80 100  30  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch from 10 AM CDT this morning through Friday evening
     for Andrews-Borden-Central Brewster-Chisos Basin-Crane-
     Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-Lower Brewster County-
     Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Reagan-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-
     Ward-Winkler.

NM...Flood Watch from 9 AM MDT this morning through Friday afternoon
     for Central Lea-Northern Lea-Southern Lea.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...55