626
ACUS11 KWNS 150005
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150004
KSZ000-150100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0722
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0704 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Areas affected...portions of northeastern Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 150004Z - 150100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A few instances of severe wind and hail may accompany the
stronger storms. A short-duration tornado threat may also exist with
supercells this evening. Convective trends are being monitored for
the need of a WW issuance.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm initiation is underway across portions of
north-central KS, which is under the terminus of an intensifying
low-level jet. These storms are developing atop a slightly capped,
but unstable airmass, characterized by 2500+ J/kg MLCAPE (per 23Z
mesoanalysis). 30+ kt south-southwesterly 850 mb flow, beneath
strong westerly mid-level winds, is contributing to sizeable, curved
low-level hodographs, shown by the TWX VAD, with 200-400 m2/s2
effective SRH evident via the 23Z mesoanalysis. If storms can mature
and become sustained, supercell structures are likely, accompanied
by a severe wind/hail threat. If storms can root into the boundary
layer, before MLCINH dominates later this evening, a tornadic
supercell cannot be ruled out, along with an instance or two of 2+
inch diameter hail.

Some uncertainty remains regarding how widespread convective
coverage will be given lingering MLCINH. Nonetheless, given the
potential for supercell initiation within an otherwise favorable
environment for significant severe, a conditions are being closely
monitored for the need of a WW issuance.

..Squitieri/Smith.. 05/15/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   38969809 39259788 39559723 39699674 39729631 39679588
            39519549 39279523 38999512 38769523 38629543 38519586
            38519636 38479712 38539752 38649795 38969809

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN