Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
142 ACUS11 KWNS 171253 SWOMCD SPC MCD 171252 OKZ000-171445- Mesoscale Discussion 1329 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Areas affected...parts of east central Oklahoma Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 426... Valid 171252Z - 171445Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 426 continues. SUMMARY...The stronger lingering storms will continue to spread south-southeastward toward the McAlester vicinity through 9-10 AM CDT, but intensities are expected to weaken further with diminishing potential for strong to severe surface gusts. A new severe weather watch is not anticipated. DISCUSSION...The organized southeastward propagating convective system has undergone substantive weakening over the past few hours, with stronger convection shrinking in areal extent and surface gusts diminishing in peak intensity. A notable (2-4+ mb 2-hourly surface pressure rises evident in 12Z surface observations) small cold pool is providing support for this convection as it propagates southeast of the Stillwater OK vicinity. Based on its 30-35 kt forward propagation, it could approach the McAlester vicinity by 15Z. However, based on current trends, including weakening forcing for ascent in the presence of considerable mid-level inhibition, it seems probable that convection will continue to wane, with further weakening of the surface cold pool and diminishing surface gusts. ..Kerr.. 06/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... LAT...LON 36249634 35999568 34869559 35009632 35839658 36249634 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN