654
ACUS11 KWNS 300026
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300026
KSZ000-300200-

Mesoscale Discussion 2419
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0726 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Areas affected...portions of central into northeastern Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 300026Z - 300200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few instances of severe hail may accompany the stronger
storms this evening.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have been intensifying within the axis of
a strengthening low-level jet, where appreciable 925-850 mb WAA was
also noted per 00Z mesoanalysis. Ahead of the strengthening cells,
the TOP 00Z observed sounding depicted an appreciably
enlarged/curved and elongated hodograph just south of a baroclinic
boundary. 7 C/km mid-level lapse rates atop an adequately moist
boundary layer are also contributing to over 2000 J/kg MUCAPE. Other
than some ascent associated with the low-level WAA advection,
overall forcing is weak. Still, given that MLCINH is not overly
strong south of the baroclinic boundary, any storms that manage to
intensify and sustain themselves may become supercellular,
accompanied by mainly a severe hail threat (given anticipated
boundary layer decoupling in the next few hours). At the moment, the
severe threat is expected to remain on the isolated side given
overall weak forcing for ascent.

..Squitieri/Guyer.. 10/30/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...DDC...

LAT...LON   37869944 38399911 39039827 39379716 39519591 39349519
            38999491 38719507 38319596 37989679 37769764 37709820
            37649891 37869944

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN