313
ACUS11 KWNS 021757
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021757
FLZ000-021930-

Mesoscale Discussion 0636
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 PM CDT Sat May 02 2026

Areas affected...portions of North and Central Florida

Concerning...Tornado Watch 183...

Valid 021757Z - 021930Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 183 continues.

SUMMARY...The potential for severe/damaging wind gusts and a couple
of tornadoes continues across Tornado Watch 183.

DISCUSSION...A band of thunderstorms along a surface cold front
extending from near the Ocala National Forest southwestward into the
eastern Gulf has produced a few measured wind gusts in the 45-55 mph
range over the past 1-2 hours. Continued insolation amid surface
dewpoints near 70 F is yielding 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE across much of
the Florida Peninsula ahead of this line. Strong effective bulk
shear of 40-50+ kts (per latest mesoanalysis) will continue to
promote storm organization, with shear vectors oriented parallel to
the cold front favoring a linear storm mode. The presence of some
mid-level dry air (evident in recent TPA/SRQ ACARS profiles) as well
as increasingly steep low-level lapse rates will continue to support
the potential for strong to severe wind gusts. Despite largely
veered surface winds, a couple of tornadoes also remain possible
given modestly-favorable low-level shear profiles. The greatest
severe potential will likely exist with any line segments that
attain a more favorable north-south orientation given generally
westerly shear vectors. Small to marginally severe hail may also
occur with any stronger updrafts, especially any persistent,
more-discrete updrafts forming ahead of the main line.

..Chalmers.. 05/02/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...

LAT...LON   28788275 29458181 29648141 29648104 29358087 28528044
            28228041 27858074 27628142 27338236 27458282 27918296
            28788275

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN