309
ACUS11 KWNS 202118
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202118
TXZ000-202315-

Mesoscale Discussion 2215
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0318 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Areas affected...portions of south-central and central Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 202118Z - 202315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A band of thunderstorms and a few supercells along a
baroclinic zone may pose a risk for isolated hail, damaging gusts or
a brief tornado across central/south-central TX into this evening.

DISCUSSION...Over the course of this afternoon, scattered convection
along a diffuse baroclinic zone has gradually intensified across
portions of south-central TX. Clearing to the east of the ongoing
storms has resulted in some diurnal warming of an unseasonably moist
air mass, aiding in moderate destabilization (MLCAPE 1000-1500
J/kg). The increase in intensity is also likely tied to the arrival
of stronger forcing for ascent ahead of the main upper trough over
the Rio Grande Valley. Stronger flow aloft (mostly parallel to the
front/outflow) will continue to support storm organization with a
mixed mode of line segments and supercells.

Current expectations are for the ongoing convection to gradually
move eastward into the destabilized air mass across
central/south-central TX with occasional intensification. With an
increase in forcing and boundary-parallel flow, upscale growth
appears to be the most likely result. Still, a few semi-discrete or
embedded elements may intensify and pose an isolated severe risk
into this evening. Hail and damaging winds would be the most likely
hazards, though a brief tornado cannot be ruled out given modestly
large low-level hodographs, especially with the more cellular
elements along the southern periphery of the primary convective
band.

Storm intensity is expected to be somewhat transient given the
undercutting nature of the front and the boundary parallel flow.
Still, some intensification is possible over the next few hours.
Convective trends will be monitored, but given the limited spatial
and temporal risk, a WW currently appears unlikely.

..Lyons/Guyer.. 11/20/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   29110085 30619969 31829814 32169737 32129699 31789670
            30579692 29029749 27879999 28350052 29110085

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN