412
ACUS11 KWNS 032003
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032002
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-032200-

Mesoscale Discussion 2217
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0302 PM CDT Thu Sep 03 2026

Areas affected...Southeast Lower Michigan into northern Ohio

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 648...649...

Valid 032002Z - 032200Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 648, 649
continues.

SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms will continue to organize and
intensify as it crosses Lake Erie over the next 1-2 hours. The
potential for severe wind along the lake shore should increase
through this period.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery depicts steady cold pool
consolidation within a organizing MCS across southeast Lower MI.
Velocity imagery and surface observations have been sampling
occasional wind gusts of 50-65 mph within the line as this
strengthening has occurred. Downstream, temperatures have been
steadily warming into the upper 80s and low 90s with MLCAPE values
increasing into the 2000-3000 J/kg range - especially along the
western lake shore. With elongated hodographs across the region (as
sampled by regional VWPs), it seems likely that further
organization/intensification of the line will occur over the next
couple of hours. Wind gusts between 60-75 mph may become more
common, including along the southern/eastern shores across northern
OH where temperatures are rebounding into the upper 80s after the
passage of a weak lake breeze. Based on recent storm tracks, the
line should reach the greater Cleveland area within the next 1.5 to
2.5 hours.

..Moore.. 09/03/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...

LAT...LON   40968167 40758193 40718220 41578470 41728483 41888466
            42338372 42738332 42868305 42898276 42218068 42008059
            41818061 41408116 40968167

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN