322
ACUS11 KWNS 260046
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260045
MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-260245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1736
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Areas affected...Southwest/South-Central
Minnesota...Northwest/North-Central Iowa

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 260045Z - 260245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Threat for severe gusts up to 90 mph and large hail around
1 inch in diameter will persist across southwest/south-central
Minnesota and northwest/north-central Iowa this evening. A Severe
Thunderstorm Watch will be issued downstream to cover these
convective hazards.

DISCUSSION...Ongoing convective cluster continues to progress
eastward across southeast South Dakota at around 35 kt. This speed
has been fairly stead over the past hour or so, suggesting the line
has not intensified. Even so, several severe gusts have been
measured, including 70 mph in Douglas County. A recent increase in
echo tops near the center of the line suggests some additional
strengthening may be underway. Given the ample low-level moisture
downstream (i.e. dewpoints in the upper 70s/low 80s) and extreme
buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE over 3500 J/kg) this strengthening would
likely continue, with an attendant threat for severe wind gusts
across southwest/south-central Minnesota and northwest/north-central
Iowa. Isolated instances of hail are possible as well. A Severe
Thunderstorm Watch will be issued downstream to cover these
convective hazards.

..Mosier/Hart.. 07/26/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...ABR...

LAT...LON   44519654 44859537 44849450 44419352 43629348 42919382
            42619444 42619526 42769637 43589676 44519654

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN