498
ACUS11 KWNS 051733
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051733
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-051900-

Mesoscale Discussion 0645
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 PM CDT Tue May 05 2026

Areas affected...portions of central New York into western
Massachusetts...Vermont...New Hampshire...and western Maine

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 051733Z - 051900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An uptick in thunderstorm coverage is expected this
afternoon. Damaging gusts will be the main threat with the stronger
storms, though an instance of hail or a brief tornado could occur.
The severe threat seems isolated, so a WW issuance is not currently
expected.

DISCUSSION...Adequate surface heating ahead of an approaching cold
front (currently over eastern Ontario) has allowed for boundary
layer destabilization, amid diminishing MLCINH, to support
convective initiation over portions of upstate NY. Ahead of these
storms, surface temperatures exceeding 80 F, despite meager
low-level moisture (45-50 F surface dewpoints) and poor mid-level
lapse rates, is resulting in 500-1000 J/kg SBCAPE. Parallel
deep-layer flow to the approaching cold front suggests that
predominantly linear storm modes are expected. Given 8-9 C/km
boundary layer lapse rates, efficient downward momentum transport
potential will exist for damaging gusts, though an instance of hail
or a brief tornado may occur if a robust, discrete storm could
develop. Nonetheless, the overall severe threat should be sparse, so
a WW issuance is not anticipated.

..Squitieri/Smith.. 05/05/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

LAT...LON   43187620 44547468 45117234 45517078 45567004 45346969
            44776987 44007077 43227208 42657272 42347340 42287426
            42187532 42287606 43187620

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN