597
ACUS11 KWNS 171827
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171827
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-172030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1332
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0127 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Areas affected...southern KS...northern OK...and the northeast TX
Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 171827Z - 172030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...An increasing severe threat is expected by late afternoon
as supercells likely develop and intensify along/ahead of remnant
outflow boundaries and a southeast-moving cold front. A watch
issuance is expected, most likely tornado.

DISCUSSION...A persistent arc of elevated convection has been
ongoing throughout the day in the wake of an overnight MCS. This
west/east-oriented broken band should begin to accelerate southeast
and may take on increasingly surface-based character heading into
late afternoon, as boundary layer recovery has been prominent across
southern KS. A few additional storms may develop south of this
activity into northern OK and the northeast TX Panhandle as MLCIN
weakens over the next few hours. The ICT VWP depicts a favorable
supercell wind profile near the large-scale outflow boundary. Any
sustained storms ahead of the broken convective band will pose a
risk for tornadoes and very large hail. Otherwise, a mix of isolated
to scattered severe gusts and hail is anticipated as this round of
convection shifts east-southeast into early evening.

..Grams/Hart.. 06/17/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON   36369868 35890004 35940079 36520098 37040000 37949896
            38079845 38019755 37839681 37679582 37509546 37149526
            36879525 36569560 36429599 36479653 36369868

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN