620
ACUS11 KWNS 232233
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232233
KSZ000-240000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1717
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0533 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Areas affected...portions of eastern Colorado into western Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 232233Z - 240000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A few severe gusts may occur through the evening hours
with the stronger storms. Convective trends are being monitored for
the need of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Scattered multicells have been gradually intensifying
ahead of a surface low along the southern CO/KS border while
traversing a surface baroclinic boundary. Ahead of the ongoing
storms, a well-mixed boundary layer is in place, with surface
temperatures nearly 100 F on the north side of the front, and T/Td
spreads in the 30-40 F range. Some of the recent DDC VAD data shows
appreciable low-level hodograph curvature, with around 300 m2/s2
0-3km SRH potentially contributing to continued organized
multicellular modes merging into a loosely organized MCS through the
evening. Should upscale growth continue, the deep and mixed boundary
layer may encourage enough evaporative cooling with the stronger
storms to promote a severe gust threat. An instance or two of hail
may also occur. Either way, convective trends will continue to be
monitored for the need of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch if storms can
further organize and intensify on a widespread basis.

..Squitieri/Mosier.. 07/23/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   37400157 38410140 38740133 38910101 38720013 38169956
            37589955 37229968 37000040 37080116 37400157

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN