584
ACUS11 KWNS 150211
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150211
IAZ000-150315-

Mesoscale Discussion 2299
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0911 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Areas affected...central and eastern Iowa

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 150211Z - 150315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A severe gust or two are possible in the next few hours. A
downstream Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance appears unlikely given
downstream stabilization.

DISCUSSION...An MCS continues to progress eastward across central
IA, and is approaching the eastern bounds of Tornado Watch 669. East
of the watch bounds, surface temperatures have cooled into the lower
70s F, with buoyancy struggling to build farther to the east. Since
severe gusts have also not been observed with the progressive
portion of the line for the past one and a half hours, the current
thinking is that the severe threat should diminish. Therefore, while
a severe gust or two still cannot be ruled out, the threat should be
isolated enough to preclude a downstream Severe Thunderstorm Watch
issuance.

..Squitieri/Smith.. 09/15/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...

LAT...LON   40889352 42139355 42419347 42669314 42729254 42559193
            42129157 41389167 41019199 40829304 40889352

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH