302
ACUS11 KWNS 112016
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112015
VAZ000-NCZ000-112115-

Mesoscale Discussion 2365
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0315 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Areas affected...portions of southern Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 112015Z - 112115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A brief tornado cannot be ruled out with storms along an
effective frontal band over the next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...A frontal band, characterized by veered surface winds
and a 5-10 F dewpoint decrease, continued to advance eastward with
the surface low, and is preceded by a wedge of 75-80 F surface
temperatures with low 70s F dewpoints. Convection has attempted to
become established along this boundary, but storms have not become
overly robust. This is likely to remain the case given localized
subsidence. However, given elongated hodographs with some low-level
curvature (e.g. the latest FCX VAD and 20Z mesoanalysis), any storm
that manages to mature may acquire brief rotation. In a few hours,
this frontal band will outpace the narrow warm sector, with the
sparse/localized severe threat expected to diminish thereafter.

..Squitieri/Smith.. 10/11/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK...

LAT...LON   36727974 37047937 37257885 37307841 37287801 37117790
            36867793 36717810 36617833 36537872 36497922 36527947
            36727974

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH