632
ACUS11 KWNS 062216
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062216
MTZ000-070015-

Mesoscale Discussion 2255
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0516 PM CDT Sun Sep 06 2026

Areas affected...west central through central Montana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 062216Z - 070015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The development of at least widely scattered storms
capable of producing severe hail and wind appears increasingly
probable through 6-8 PM MDT.  It remains unclear whether this will
require a severe weather watch, but trends are being monitored for
this possibility.

DISCUSSION...Large-scale ascent, supported by lower/mid-tropospheric
warm advection beneath strengthening difluent mid/upper flow,
downstream of troughing slowly pivoting toward the northern Rockies,
is contributing to the initiation of thunderstorm development across
the mountains of west central into central Montana.  This is
occurring in the presence of relatively cool thermodynamic profiles,
but with sufficiently steep lapse rates to support at least modest
CAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg.   Coupled with the presence of
strong deep-layer shear beneath 40-70+ southwesterly flow in the
500-300 mb layer, the environment appears conducive to the evolution
of at least widely scattered supercells capable of producing severe
hail and severe wind gusts through 00-02Z.  The extent to which
activity may grow upscale into a least small organizing clusters
with more widespread damaging wind gust potential remains a bit more
unclear, and will continue to be monitored.

..Kerr/Smith.. 09/06/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...MSO...

LAT...LON   46681372 47421207 47680959 46340906 46121158 45461263
            45781374 46681372

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN