267
ACUS11 KWNS 301839
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301838
TXZ000-302045-

Mesoscale Discussion 2420
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0138 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Areas affected...parts of mid/upper Texas coastal areas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 301838Z - 302045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Shower and thunderstorm activity overspreading the mid to
upper Texas coastal plain through 3-5 PM CDT may be accompanied by
low probabilities for a brief/weak tornado, mainly near immediate
coastal areas.

DISCUSSION...Downstream of a weakening mid-level cyclonic vorticity
center slowly migrating north-northeast of the lower Rio Grande
Valley, a focused area of low-level forcing for ascent, supported by
weak low-level convergence and warm advection, is overspreading
middle Texas coastal areas near Palacios.  Preceding a subsident,
lower/mid-tropospheric dry slot, moist thermodynamic profiles
characterized by weak conditional instability have been supporting a
northeastward spreading area of mostly weak convection.  However,
this has included discrete cells with weak to occasionally modest
embedded low-level updraft rotation offshore of coastal areas, where
near-surface buoyancy is boosted by lower/mid 70s surface dew
points, in the presence of small, but clockwise-curved, low-level
hodographs.

With the progression of the larger-scale mid-level troughing, this
environment may develop closer to mid/upper Texas coastal areas
between Palacios and Galveston over the next few hours accompanied
by some risk for a brief, weak tornado.  But, this activity appears
unlikely to spread inland beyond immediate coastal areas, where a
slightly cooler/drier boundary-layer will probably be maintained.

..Kerr/Smith.. 10/30/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...

LAT...LON   28629654 29099523 29169497 28679490 28319624 28629654

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH