084
ACUS11 KWNS 302027
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302027
NEZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-302230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1805
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0327 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Areas affected...western South Dakota into north-central Nebraska

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 533...

Valid 302027Z - 302230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 533
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe threat continues within WW533.

DISCUSSION...Supercell clusters continue across northern
Nebraska/south-central South Dakota, with echo tops to 55 kft. Thus
far, mode has been messy with lots of storm interactions/mergers.
Recent gusts to 59 mph were measured with this cluster. It seems
likely that from within this region, a cluster of storms will
eventually organize along outflows/cold pools and shift southward,
with an increasing damaging wind threat through the
afternoon/evening. Additional storms are developing along the zone
of surface confluence across western Nebraska and will continue to
pose potential for large hail and damaging wind.

Additional thunderstorms are ongoing further northwest across
western South Dakota. Instability is less favorable in this region
but sufficient deep layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates may
support potential for another semi-organized cluster to emerge
through the evening. Local extension of WW533 may be warranted to
support this potential.

..Thornton.. 07/30/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...

LAT...LON   42839926 43519951 44160013 45290173 45850328 45770382
            45250423 44140402 43100293 42820284 42080207 41550177
            41070093 41150008 41349899 41619889 42839926

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN