881
ACUS11 KWNS 030646
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030645
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-030845-

Mesoscale Discussion 2440
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 AM CST Tue Nov 03 2026

Areas affected...Eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas and the
Texarkana region

Concerning...Tornado Watch 703...

Valid 030645Z - 030845Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 703 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for severe winds, and perhaps a brief tornado,
will continue across far eastern Oklahoma and into far western
Arkansas for the next hour or so. Thunderstorms moving into the
greater Texarkana region may pose an occasional severe threat
through the early morning hours, but additional watch issuance is
not expected.

DISCUSSION...Latest MRMS imagery depicts the most intense convection
traversing eastern Oklahoma with strong velocities noted off the
KFSM radar. This compact line segment will migrate across the
northern fringe of the low-level moisture plume/buoyancy axis over
the next couple of hours, and given its favorable orientation with
the deep-layer shear vector and strong low-level SRH noted in the
KFSM VWP, will continue to pose a threat for severe wind, and
perhaps a brief tornado, as it approaches the Fort Smith, AR area.
Gradual weakening of this segment is anticipated after roughly 08
UTC as it moves further into AR and into a more stable air mass.

Further south, a loosely organized convective band moving across the
northern Dallas/Fort-Worth metro will continue to push
east/northeast towards the greater Texarkana region over the next
several hours. Downstream of this segment, richer low-level moisture
(dewpoints in the 70s) continues to support MLCAPE values upwards of
1000 J/kg within a moderately sheared environment (per regional
VWPs). The long residence time within this warm sector may support
occasional intensification of cells/segments within the line that
could pose a threat for isolated severe gusts over the next several
hours. However, poor alignment with the deep-layer shear vector
coupled with increasing displacement from the primary upper-level
forcing for ascent should act to modulate overall storm organization
and intensity. These concerns limit confidence in the need for
additional watch issuance at this time.

..Moore.. 11/03/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   33089698 34289588 35249535 35629492 35739442 35739406
            35669389 35499377 35159374 33729387 33409403 33119438
            32959478 32879543 32839596 32879632 32929662 33089698

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN